There likely won’t be much stability on the tariff front ahead.
That was the message from Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka during a Monday morning, May 19, virtual news conference on the subject.
“It’s going to continue to be bumpy for a while,” he said, adding the ongoing tariff situation is “more widespread than anything we’ve seen.”
Cargo numbers for April came in 9.4% higher than those from the same month last year, Seroka reported, and after four months, the port has seen 6.2% more cargo than during the same period in 2024.
But a “pullback” is anticipated going forward.
“We’ve had nearly two years of robust volume, including 10 straight months of year-over-year growth,” Seroka said, crediting a strong economy and consumer confidence.
But the upticks seen in the past few months, he added, were likely due to importers pushing out cargo to beat the tariffs as much as possible.
The Port of Long Beach is seeing similar trends.
Moving forward, Seroka said, will be a different — and more difficult — scenario.
“We are in a very unique moment for global trade,” Seroka said on the call with dozens of news outlets. He described the ongoing uncertainties as a “whipsaw” effect that is producing tariff-related impacts for the foreseeable future.
Seventeen sailings out of 80 that were set to arrive in May have already been canceled, Seroka said. And 10 cancelations have been made for June.
Some bookings, however, are expected to start picking up, he said, as the situation remains somewhat fluid.
“We’ll probably see an uptick in bookings, especially from China,” Seroka said.
Last week, the U.S. and China agreed to pause the sky-high tariffs they had placed on one another for 90 days as they restart trade talks. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the U.S. agreed to drop the 145% tax President Donald Trump imposed last month to 30%.
But prices remain “very much elevated” and consumers can expect to see reduced product selections and inventory, along with those higher prices, in the months ahead, he said.
Cargo isn’t the only thing being affected by the tariffs, Seroka added. The credit-rating agency Moody’s has lowered the U.S. government’s top credit rating, and jobs in retail — as well as on the docks — are also being impacted.
“Job impacts were swift and visible,” Seroka said. “Fewer containers mean less work on the waterfront.”
Keeping dockworkers employed, he said, remains a priority. Some possibilities, should it become necessary, could be to use workers for labor on equipment and other upgrades, Seroka said.
As for the rumored cargo surge to come, Seroka said, while more will be coming, it won’t be in the numbers some are predicting — and it all should be manageable. That’s because of, in large part, the advancements made by the port in being able to foresee and plan for incoming shipments. With its Port Optimizer technology, he said, POLA can now see and plan for shipments 14 days in advance.
“I don’t believe we’ll be caught off guard again” as the port was during the pandemic surges, he said. “I don’t see anything happening that would be just absolutely a shock to the system.”
Other ongoing port projects, meanwhile, continue as planned, Seroka said, including those to reduce pollution and terminal improvements, adding that POLA’s financial foundation remains strong.
As for what the coming peak season — when goods begin coming in for the fall and holiday season — will look like compared to last year?
“I have no idea,” Seroka said. “We’ll probably see lower inventory levels across a variety of retail sectors because products will cost a lot more and (stores) won’t want a heavy heavy inventory.”
There likely will be higher prices, he said, and smaller companies that rely on the holidays to carry them through the year will have more muted returns than in years past, according to what some retailers are now saying.
“We’ll see what the outcome is,” Seroka said, noting some companies may pass costs on to consumers and tariffs could also be increased. “It’s going to be real interesting to see how this all plays out.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.