Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would claim the largest number of seats if a general election was held today, a new poll has found.
However, the party would fall far short of a majority in the House of Commons in a sign of how sharply split the UK has become on politics.
If the figures from pollsters More in Common were to play out in real life, Farage would need to form a coalition with another party such as the Conservatives if he wanted to become Prime Minister.
That’s a very big ‘if’ – the next election is likely to be more than four years away, and the political landscape can shift enormously in that time.
However, it’s a clear sign of the momentum behind the right-wing newcomers nine months after they won five seats at the 2024 election.
Here’s how the seats would change compared to the last time the UK went to the ballot box, according to the new poll.
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- Reform UK: 180 seats, an increase of 175 with vote share of 23.7%
- Conservatives: 165 seats, an increase of 44 with vote share of 24.3%
- Labour: 165 seats, a decrease of 246 with vote share of 24.5%
- Liberal Democrats: 67 seats, a decrease of five with vote share of 13.3%
- SNP: 35 seats, an increase of 26 with vote share of 2.2%
- Independent MPs: 10 seats, an increase of four with vote share of 3.7%
- Plaid Cymru: Five seats, an increase of one with vote share of 0.7%
- Green: Four seats, no change from 2024 with vote share of 7.7%
The More in Common poll was worked out by asking 16,000 people around the UK who they would vote for, along with personal details such as their age.
By matching those details with the number of people in each constituency who share them, the researchers are able to predict which would opt for each party.
Craig’s analysis of the poll
Let’s be clear from the off: the results of this poll are pure fantasy. They’re figures from an alternate reality where the UK is anywhere near holding a general election.
But political geeks like me enjoy nothing more than diving into a hypothetical scenario and imagining how it would play out.
To begin with, this result would be a complete mess. The magic number in Westminster elections is 326 – that’s 50% of the total number of seats plus one.
If you win that many, you have enough MPs to form a majority and therefore a government.
As you can see from the numbers above, the only way any party is getting anywhere near that would be forming a coalition like the one set up by the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 2010.
Even more than the rise of Reform, this – to me – is the big story of this poll. The general public is extremely fractured, with no single party attracting more than a quarter of the electorate.
The only viable coalition I can see is between the Conservatives and Reform – that’s something figures in both parties would rather avoid, but as we saw in 2010, power is a strong dealbreaker.
You’d assume Labour would rule out partnering with the Tories or Reform, which would mean no way back into power for a party that bagged a stonking majority just a few months ago.
This poll may be fantasy, but it points to a very real problem for Keir Starmer. And the 2029 election may come around before he knows it.
The forecast result would be a complete disaster for Labour – and not just because the party would fall from a comfortable majority to joint-second place.
According to the poll, top figures including Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband would be among the 153 Labour MPs who lose to Reform UK.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting would also lose his seat, but to an independent MP like the one who came within 529 votes of defeating him last year.
Luke Tryl, the UK Director for More in Common, said: ‘Not only would an election tomorrow see the gains of 2024 largely reversed, but the party is also suffering historic losses in heartlands such as the Welsh Valleys, Greater Manchester and South Yorkshire, with ten cabinet ministers losing their seats.’
He added: ‘The test for all three main parties [Labour, the Conservatives and Reform] will be which one can prove to the electorate that they can really deliver the change the public so desperately wants to see.’
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