This is where the Broncos find themselves entering Sunday’s game, chasing the AFC’s No. 1 seed against the suddenly dangerous Jacksonville Jaguars.
The last time we saw Bo Nix he was riddling the Green Bay Packers vaunted defense.
The last time we heard Nix he was praising Broncos Country for putting on their seatbelts, riding the roller coaster and showing patience with him.
The next time he will receive universal respect will be the first time.
What a difference a year doesn’t make. How many questions does Nix have to answer before we agree he is top 10 quarterback?
This week he entered the MVP conversation for the first time with the fifth-best odds.
“It is pretty cool,” Nix said. “It probably means we’re 12-2 and have a good team.”
Yet, the doubts remain. Some of this comes across as cherry-picking of people I respect. But it is irritating.
So, Todd McShay of The Ringer appeared on Colin Cowherd’s national radio show this week, and talked quarterbacks. A draft expert, McShay admitted he viewed Nix as an early second-round pick coming out of Oregon, and praised coach Sean Payton for having the guts to select him 12th overall. With Payton’s legacy attached to getting it right, he had a vision for Nix in his offense.
But McShay could not help himself. He made it clear that he did not think Nix would be Nix with just anyone else, implying he was a Payton creation. This drives me crazy. Things change. Players evolve. But draftniks, in my experience from covering the NFL since 1996, would rather put their children up for adoption than change their opinion on a prospect.
Hello? What else does Nix have to show after last week?
The last box to check was the ability to push the ball down field. The criticism that Payton appeared to be game planning around Nix’s weaknesses was fair for 10 weeks. But, he put on a laser show worthy of a Pink Floyd concert against the Packers. Dime. After dime. After dime.
Nix led the Broncos back from a nine-point, third quarter deficit to an eight-point win. Does this ring any bells?
Yes, the defense produced two interceptions and three sacks. But given the time, place and opponent, Nix has never played better.
The previous 13 starting quarterbacks after Peyton Manning produced one winning season and never reached the postseason. Last Sunday, Nix joined Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson as the only quarterbacks since 1950 to win at least 10 games and make the playoffs in each of their first two seasons.
Has Nix benefited from Payton? Yes. But he was also overcoached by him for long stretches this season, putting unnecessary strain on his brain.
As Jacksonville wanders into town, talk percolates about Trevor Lawrence regaining his footing, of living up to his first overall pick billing. He accounted for six touchdowns in a rout of the Jets last week. And you know who is having a better season? Nix.
He can roll eyes and create sighs with his accuracy at times, but he delivers. Especially in the clutch. Where so many quarterbacks are George Costanza in the “Fire!” — showing extreme panic and cowardice — Nix operates with a slow heartbeat.
Consider this. Since last season, Nix ranks tied for first in game-winning drives with nine. His eight fourth-quarterback comebacks are tops. When trailing in games, his 26 passing touchdowns are fourth best. Only Josh Allen (71) and Justin Herbert (67) boast more first downs or scores on third down this season than Nix (65).
Would you rather have a co-worker who crushes the morning staff email or nails the sales presentation to the boss? Anyone can ace the flight simulator. Give me the person who can land the plane in a thunderstorm.
Nix is at his best when things look their worst. Some of that has been his own creation, but he is a closer. His passer rating when the Broncos face a deficit is 96.3, ninth in the NFL since his career began.
You can practice incompletions (Thank you Pat Shurmur). You cannot teach clutch.
Nix is built to carry the Broncos through the most difficult moments — which is their entire season since they have won 10 games by eight points or fewer. During the past four games, part of an 11-game winning streak, Nix has completed 69.5% of his passes for 1,130 yards, five touchdowns and one interception.
But, stutter, stammer, Nix is just an average player who has gotten hot, right? Wrong.
Over the past two seasons, Nix has delivered 61 total touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes has 55. And Nix has outplayed him in two of their three career matchups.
If I am reading this correctly, Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen will get the MVP trophy. Drake Maye and Caleb Williams will get praised for their second-year growth. And Bo Nix will get shrugs as nothing more than a valet for a legendary coach and fangs-bearing defense.
Fair or not, there are many Non-Bolievers. It just no longer makes sense. He takes care of the ball, and rarely gets sacked (16) compared to Justin Herbert (49), Maye (43) and Lawrence (32).
Nix is not Allen, the scariest player in the upcoming postseason. He does not have Stafford’s arm, though he has incorporated the no-look pass into his repertoire.
But he is a proven winner. That used to matter, and was the defining statistic for John Elway when he retired following the 1998 season. Now, the numbers go deep into the weeds, getting too nerdy.
Trust your eyes. And the stakes.
When the alarm is blaring and hazards flashing, Nix plays his best. When it comes to respect, that should always matter more than the numbers.
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