Forecasting the major storylines for the coming week, which culminates with the College Football Playoff selections, bowl announcements and Heisman Trophy voting …
1. ACC on the brink
Chaos stepped aside in favor of law and order on the final weekend of the regular season, with 13 of the top-14 teams in the CFP rankings prevailing. (The lone loser, Texas A&M, had its playoff spot locked up.)
That said, Week 14 wasn’t without one morsel of mayhem, courtesy of the ACC.
The final conference game of the season resulted in an upset with massive implications: Cal toppled SMU, knocking the Mustangs out of the ACC championship and opening a spot for Duke to face Virginia next weekend.
If you aren’t familiar with the Blue Devils, know this: They have five losses (overall) and are currently unranked, meaning a Duke victory in Charlotte could result in the ACC champion missing the playoff.
That’s right, folks. The CFP assigns automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions. If the Blue Devils are ranked lower than champions from the Big 12, Big Ten, SEC and two Group of Five leagues — and that could very well be the case: they lost to Tulane and Connecticut — then the ACC winner would not make the cut.
A greater humiliation we cannot imagine.
That ignominious fate isn’t guaranteed. If Virginia wins, the ACC will be fine: The 18th-ranked Cavaliers would assuredly qualify for an automatic bid. And they beat Duke by 17 points a few weeks ago.
Still, the ACC is uncomfortably close to an embarrassment of incomprehensible proportions.
2. Champ game matchups
We mentioned the ACC pairing in Charlotte and the immense significance of a Duke victory.
In contrast, the Big Ten title game has nothing substantive on the line.
You read that right: No. 1 Ohio State will face No. 2 Indiana in Indianapolis with stakes so small as to be nonexistent. Both teams have clinched CFP bids and, barring a blowout, are guaranteed to receive top-four seeds and byes into the quarterfinals. (We would not blame the coaches a lick for resting their quarterbacks.)
The mammoth conferences created by realignment have undercut the CFP selection process so severely that a matchup of undefeated Big Ten teams has no material bearing on the brackets.
Well done, college sports. Well done.
The SEC showdown has a familiar look: Texas A&M’s loss at Texas opened the door for Georgia, which will play Alabama in Atlanta.
The Crimson Tide faced a win-and-in situation at Auburn on Saturday evening and escaped with a 27-20 victory that had typical Iron Bowl drama.
The duel carries a modest level of significance: No. 4 Georgia has a CFP berth locked up, but 10th-ranked Alabama probably cannot afford to lose decisively — not with a bad loss (to Florida State) already on its resume.
If the Crimson Tide loses in competitive fashion, it’s difficult to envision the selection committee punishing the SEC’s runner-up, especially considering Alabama already beat Georgia once (in Athens).
We’ve addressed the ACC, Big Ten and SEC matchups, but there’s a fourth worth mentioning: The Big 12 collision, which could have no impact on the CFP selection process or a gigantic impact.
Texas Tech and BYU are set to meet in Arlington in a rematch of the Red Raiders’ blowout victory in Lubbock earlier this month.
The winner goes to the CFP with an automatic bid, but the fifth-ranked Red Raiders probably would gobble an at-large berth if they lose — thereby taking a spot away from Miami, Notre Dame or an SEC team.
But the 11th-ranked Cougars are hardly guaranteed a berth if they lose next weekend. In fact, they probably won’t make the cut, leaving the Big 12 with a single bid for the second consecutive year.
3. CFP controversy looms
The selection committee will release its penultimate rankings on Tuesday, followed by the only version that matters on the morning of Dec. 7.
It’s not difficult to project the primary source of controversy.
Assuming Alabama makes the CFP field (even with a loss in the SEC championship) and Texas Tech wins the Big 12 title, there seemingly are 11 spots locked up:
— Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, which clinched a berth with its 26-14 victory at Washington.
— SEC: Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Alabama
— Big 12: Texas Tech
— Group of Five champ
— ACC champ or second Group of Five champ
That would leave five candidates for the final spot:
Notre Dame (10-2), an Independent that must qualify through the at-large pool; Miami (10-2), the highest-ranked team from the ACC but not eligible for the conference championship; Vanderbilt (10-2), which didn’t make the SEC championship; BYU (11-2), which would have lost twice to Texas Tech; and Texas (9-3), which hopes to become the first three-loss team to ever qualify for the CFP.
We envision BYU being eliminated because handing a short straw to the Big 12 creates limited public pushback for the committee.
And the committee could justify excluding the Longhorns because of their three losses and Vanderbilt, as well, because the Commodores lost to Texas. (It’s cutting two teams for the price of one.)
That would leave Miami and Notre Dame for one spot.
Miami won the head-to-head matchup by three points at home, but the committee has ranked the Irish higher than the Hurricanes for weeks.
We know which school has greater brand power and generates higher TV ratings.
It would be a fascinating debate. All things being equal, the head-to-head result should carry the day. But are all things equal?
Because neither team plays next weekend, the rankings released Tuesday afternoon will provide a massive clue.
4. The Heisman hype
Ballots for the Heisman Trophy must be submitted by 2 p.m. (Pacific) on Dec. 9, the day after bowl pairings are announced.
In a notable procedural change, the Heisman Trust won’t open the online voting portal until Saturday, thus preventing the 900-something members of the electorate from casting ballots before the conference championship games. (Yes, that was a thing, unfortunately.)
Voters cast ballots for three players. The Hotline has a seven-man list at this point that will be whittled next weekend, but these are the four expected to be invited to New York City for the ceremony Dec. 14 (alphabetically by school):
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Notre Dame tailback Jeremiyah Love, Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia.
Only Mendoza and Sayin will compete next weekend in championship games — and against each other, no less.
5. The carousel spins
The hottest coaching market in years, and perhaps ever, is about to shift into high gear.
A slew of schools have filled their openings, with Virginia Tech (James Franklin), Stanford (Tavita Pritchard), Oklahoma State (Eric Morris), Colorado State (Jim Mora Jr.) and Oregon State (JaMarcus Shephard) all taking the plunge.
Additionally, several coaches have agreed to contract extensions with their current employer, including Mike Elko (Texas A&M) and Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri).
What’s more, a handful of schools chose to retain their coaches instead of wading into the market: Florida State’s Mike Norvell is returning in 2026; same with Maryland’s Mike Locksley, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell and Baylor’s Dave Aranda.
But Penn State, LSU, Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, UCLA and Cal are in search mode, and their decisions could create another wave of openings.
Plus, a few schools conspicuous by their silence (hello, Michigan State) could have vacancies in the next 48 hours.
With the regular season complete, look for a surge of news on the hiring and firing front. That process could begin Sunday morning with a decision by Mississippi’s Lane Kiffin, who is LSU’s top target.
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