Final accounting came early for the Sky this year.
For the first time since 2018, there was no postseason appearance to hang their hats on. As the 2021 title season moves even further into the franchise’s rearview mirror, only one question truly matters after a failed season: what’s the plan for returning to the top echelon?
“We’re going to make the strongest and most aggressive moves we can this free agency,” Sky general manager Jeff Pagliocca said during exit interviews. “We want to get there sooner rather than later.”
The Sky’s descent from the team with the best record in the league to a lottery team was swift. Their return won’t be, despite Pagliocca’s goals, but there is a sensible timeline that could see the Sky return to the top half of league standings by 2026.
It starts with Pagliocca pulling off at least one significant free agency signing and capitlizing on the Sky’s lottery pick.
The Sky’s most glaring needs start in their backcourt. They finished the season last in the league in made three pointers, averaging just 4.8 per game. One target to keep an eye on in free agency is Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell, represented by the same agency as center Elizabeth Williams who Pagliocca just signed to a one-year extension.
Players have until November to opt out of the current CBA. All signs indicate they will, in which case it will expire at the end of the 2025 season. This means that veteran players will likely only be signing one-year contracts with the expectation that salaries and the salary cap will see a substantial increase by 2026.
Pagliocca said on Friday that he still wants to sell free agents on a longterm goal despite the assumption that most will be looking to sign one-year deals. He does that by using the 2025 season to prove the direction the Sky are headed in is a winning one.
The Sky will have six players under contract next year and just over $900,000 in cap space to work with after factoring Wiliams new deal which according to herhoopstats.com is valued at $100,000. If Pagliocca is able to pull off signing a player like Mitchell — who is shooting 40.2% for the Fever from three this year — and draft well the Sky are on their way back toward a playoff berth in 2025.
Beyond the lottery pick this year the Sky will also have the No. 9 pick from the Sun which Pagliocca acquired in the trade for Marina Mabrey. The 2026 draft, however, is one that could really prove to be Pagliocca’s best work yet.
The Sky own either the Mercury’s 2026 first round pick or the Sun’s. When he was forced to trade 2021 Finals MVP Kahleah Copper, he acquired the Mercury’s 2026 first round pick. Months later when he was forced to trade another star player, this time Mabrey, he acquired the right to swap the 2026 first-round pick he acquired from the Mercury with the Sun.This could amount to a lottery pick, given the Sun’s three-headed championship-contending monster of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones could end up disbanding after this season.
The first-year trial run for Pagliocca and coach Teresa Weatherspoon is officially over and the takeaway during exit interviews was that this team was inexperienced and young. This time next year, that assessment will no longer be viable.
For Pagliocca, ensuring the Sky’s downward spiral doesn’t become their identity will hinge upon swinging big in free agnecy. Unlike last year, they need to connect.