The June primary election was a pretty bad showing for California Republicans.
Republican gubernatorial candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton received a combined 34.9% of the vote statewide. That figure is supplemented by a little over a percent more with the several other Republicans on the gubernatorial ballot.
Among the other statewide races, Republicans got locked out of the race for insurance commissioner and got less than a quarter of the vote for state superintendent of public instruction (technically a nonpartisan race). The single best performing Republican was Michael Gates in his run to unseat Attorney General Rob Bonta, with Gates getting 37.9% of the vote.
If someone was expecting 2026 to be the year when the California Republican Party turns things around, well, that doesn’t seem to be the case so far.
But no one really expects Republicans to flip statewide offices. The most practically useful thing would be for the Republicans to try to break the Democratic supermajority in the California Legislature. But that’s not looking too good.
In Southern California, three Assembly seats in the Inland Empire and the Low Desert currently held by Republicans are looking pretty tough to hang onto. Particularly vulnerable are the two Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in the Assembly just two years ago.
In the 36th Assembly District, GOP Assemblymember Jeff Gonzalez received just over 44% of the vote against a field of Democratic challengers. This is despite Gonzalez’s efforts to aid Democrats and public sector unions, including his critical vote to roll back taxpayer protections in Contra Costa and Los Angeles counties, his vote to deepen the state’s pension problems and his support for all manner of government intervention, including an absurd bill to license interior designers. Gonzalez is set to face Ida S. Obeso-Martinez, who in addition to being mayor of the city of Imperial is also a cardiovascular nurse practitioner at the Imperial Cardiac Center.
In the 47th Assembly District is the more seasoned Assemblymember Greg Wallis, who has represented the district since his close 2022 election. Wallis’ record is squishy in the way his former boss Chad Mayes was, which is no doubt necessitated by the nature of a purple district. Accordingly, he’s made many of the same bad votes as Gonzalez, but unlike Gonzalez, Wallis has won multiple tough races. In both 2022 and 2024, Wallis went neck-and-neck against former Palm Springs Mayor Christy Holstege. This is the first time he’ll be running against someone other than Holstege, this time set to face off with Leila Namvar, who works as a public arts analyst for the city of Indio. Right now his 48.1% share of the vote against two Democratic challengers is a hair less than he got in the primary two years ago.
In the 58th Assembly District, GOP Assemblymember Leticia Castillo received 45.5% of the vote in the June primary against Riverside Councilmember Clarissa Cervantes. Two years ago, Castillo narrowly defeated Cervantes by hundreds of votes. That win followed Cervantes notably getting arrested for DUI just weeks after getting her first DUI removed from her record. With the passage of time, Cervantes’ ongoing sobriety and Castillo’s thin legislative record, the incumbent has quite the uphill battle to hold onto her Assembly seat.
Based on these results, it’s not looking good for any of these three.
Castillo basically needs another scandal to befall Cervantes at this point. Gonzalez has no real political constituency; he’s a Republican who supports taxpayer-funded healthcare for illegal immigrants, votes to enable tax increases and proposes unserious legislation like a bill to create a domestic violence registry. Wallis, based on his district’s history with moderate Republicans and his ability to hang on in close races, seems best suited to ride out the storm.
In any case, it’s not looking like the GOP is in much of a position to fend off the supermajority or turn the political tide in California.
Sal Rodriguez can be reached at salrodriguez@scng.com