Shoppers may find a bit of relief in their pockets this year, as many holiday staples are priced lower than a year ago.
“For the first time in a while, I can give the good news that actually, the cost of a meal looks like it’s going to be down this year,” said Dawn Thilmany, professor of agricultural and resource economics at Colorado State University.
Thilmany said turkey prices are a major reason for the shift, after several years of inflation tied to avian influenza and supply chain disruptions.
“Everybody has a different statistic out there, but it’s probably between 5 to 10% (lower) and it also depends on on what you buy,” she said.
“A turkey is not a turkey anymore. There’s frozen turkeys, there’s fresh turkeys, there’s organic turkeys — but I would say the most consistent number I’ve seen for someone who plans to buy a typical frozen turkey, a pretty normal size, is that it’ll be 5% cheaper this year.”
However, Thilmany said some canned and processed foods may still cost more because of higher labor costs and tariffs on imported materials such as aluminum for cans.
“This might be the year to try to make your own cranberry sauce, because anything that’s going to be in a can in the middle of the aisles is going to have a slightly higher price point,” she said.
Tariffs that previously affected items such as chocolate and coffee have recently been rolled back, so home bakers may see some relief. But certain ingredients, including sweet potatoes, could be impacted as farmers are still feeling the repercussions of Hurricane Helene that destroyed crops in North Carolina, Thilmany said.
However, she said consumers and retailers are adapting in different ways.
Grocers are pushing bundled holiday-meal deals to help shoppers save, including grocery giants like Target, Costco, King Soopers, Safeway and Walmart, which is offering a Butterball turkey for 97 cents per pound, its lowest price since 2019.
“We know every dollar and minute counts — which is why we are offering a low priced, one-click Thanksgiving Meal Basket featuring iconic brands like Butterball and Stove Top alongside trusted Walmart private brand items,” said John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S., in a recent news release.
“We want every family to be able to share a meal and celebrate without compromising on quality, quantity or tradition.”
Customers are buying the bundles, but they are also planning meals more carefully, eating out less and trying to reduce food waste, Thilmany said.
“The real way to keep this cost-effective is to do as much of it from scratch as you can, because basic food ingredients are always going to be cheaper than something that’s had a lot of work or hours spent on creating it for you,” she said.
Looking ahead, Thilmany said ongoing and reversed tariffs will continue to influence the price of key holiday and everyday foods. While some tariffs have recently been lifted, future policy decisions could shift prices again.
Thanksgiving meal bundles across several grocers:
- Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal serves 10 people for under $4 per person, the lowest price since Walmart launched the program in 2022.
- Target’s Thanksgiving meal feeds four people for under $20, or less than $5 per person.
- Costco is offering a Turkey meal bundle for up to $269, while supplies last. The bundle serves eight to 10 people.
- King Soopers has Thanksgiving meals starting at $75 for a Boneless Turkey Dinner that serves four to six people, and up to $170 for a Thanksgiving Feast Bundle that serves eight to 10 people. The meals are customizable, with à la carte sides available, and must be ordered at least 24 hours in advance.
- Safeway is offering a Homestyle Turkey Dinner for $80 that serves six to eight people.
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