Obama Clinton 2008

A number of polls and news headlines are pointing to the Democratic primary narrowing into a three-way race between former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
But if we’ve learned anything from this cycle and from previous elections, the candidates who occupy the top tier of the field aren’t set in stone.
In the 2008 GOP primary, for example, Rudy Giuliani dominated the rest of the crowded GOP field in the polls while John McCain, the eventual Republican nominee, trailed behind him until January 2008.
On the Democratic side, too, Hillary Clinton lead Obama by double-digit margins for months until February of 2008.
At this point, it’s unlikely that any candidates polling at or below 1% will be the nominee. But given the unpredictable nature of politics, it’s too early to declare the 2020 field a three-person race.
Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

On the eve of the third Democratic debate, a number of polls and news headlines are pointing to the bloated Democratic primary narrowing into a three-way race between former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Those three candidates are the only ones who now regularly clear triple-digits in Democratic primary polls and have seen their numbers either stay consistent or rise as other candidates who previously experienced big surges in the polls, like Sen. Kamala Harris, have so far struggled to consolidate support.

But if we’ve learned anything from this cycle and from previous elections, the candidates who occupy the top tier of the field aren’t set in stone.

Read more: Trump advisers are more worried about Elizabeth Warren than any other 2020 Democratic candidate

Previously unknown candidates including Mayor Pete Buttigieg and businessman Andrew Yang have experienced meteoric rises and become breakout stars in the Democratic field, building up dedicated bases of supporters and qualifying for the next rounds of debates.

Meanwhile, the candidacies of politicians initially expected to be Democratic frontrunners — like Sen Kirsten Gillibrand, who dropped out of the race after not qualifying for the fall debates — failed to gain any traction and have fallen flat.

As the 2020 campaign cycle progresses, the Washington Post has been tracking which candidates led the race in Real Clear Politics’ polling average during past presidential primary cycles in this post from Phillip Bump and under the Twitter handle @LedPast.

420 DAYS TO GO:
2008 Dem: Clinton led by 19 points.
2008 GOP: Giuliani led by 6.5 points.
2012 GOP: Perry led by 12 points.
2016 Dem: Clinton led by 21.4 points.
2016 GOP: Trump led by 10.5 points.https://t.co/OLynKLRaJh

— Who led? (@LedPast) September 10, 2019

Both Trump and Biden lead at this point in the 2016 and 2020 primaries, but from very different circumstances

By looking at polling from the 2016 election, it might seem easy to assume that the candidate leading the polls at this point will likely carry the whole thing.

In the 2016 GOP …read more

Source:: Business Insider

      

(Visited 1 times, 1 visits today)
The 2020 Democratic primary may look like a three-way race, but many presidential nominees started at the back of the pack

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *