More than presidential elections, midterms are often decided by which side shows up.
With the White House not up for grabs, turnout tends to be considerably lower – in 2018, 49% of eligible voters cast a ballot, versus 64% for the 2024 presidential election.
Put another way, persuasion matters less in midterms, and the party whose voters are angrier and more motivated usually walks away the winner.
That makes enthusiasm and the gap between voters for both parties one of the surest tells in a midterm year. Right now, it is tilting hard towards Democrats, though their position may not be as secure as it appears.
Indeed, nearly one-half (46%) of Democrats say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in November, against just 31% of Republicans, per recent Reuters/Ipsos polling.
Moreover, Independents – who will actually decide the election – break to Democrats by 14-points (36% to 22%).
This is hardly the first time the enthusiasm gap has shown up in polling, though as the calendar flips and November comes closer into view, it is even more critical.
In July, ABC/Washington Post polling found that compared to the 79% of Democrats absolutely certain to vote this year, 69% of Republicans said the same, but that fell to 62% of Republicans who only “somewhat approve” of President Trump.
At the same time, though Democrats led the generic congressional ballot by just 3-points, that ballooned to 8-points among voters absolutely certain to cast a ballot.
To be sure, the factors behind this gap are understandable.
Trump’s approval rating sits at 33% in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest of his second term, and the third straight month just one-third of Americans gave the president passing marks.
Further, 71% of Americans – including four-in-10 Republicans – disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, a figure unlikely to approve as tariffs are back in the news amid a trade war with Canada and oil prices continue climbing due to the war in Iran.
Add these up, and the outlook appears grim for Republicans. The generic congressional ballot bears that out, with Democrats holding a 6-point lead, per RealClearPolitics.
History is also on Democrats’ side. The party in control of the White House almost always loses House seats in the midterms, as has happened in all but two midterms since 1938.
Looking at more recent history should also concern Republicans, though with important caveats.
Ahead of the 2018 midterms, Democrats had an 11-point advantage in enthusiasm (69% to 58%), per CNN polling, so their current 15-point lead indicates that the outlook may be even better for Democrats now than 2018, when they won a historic 41 seats in the House.
This pattern holds even further back.
Leading up to the 2010 and 2014 midterms – when former President Barack Obama was in office – Republicans held 15- and 12-point leads, respectively, in voter enthusiasm.
In both elections, the GOP dominated across the country.
This all being said, while the enthusiasm gap is real, evident, and favoring Democrats, there are signs potentially hinting that Democrats may not have a 2018-style landslide.
Eight years ago, Democrats had a double-digit lead in the generic congressional ballot, yet that now sits at mid-single digits.
Likewise, given Democrats’ 15-point advantage in enthusiasm in the Reuters/Ipsos survey, the poll also finds that they lead by just 5-points in the generic ballot, suggesting that an opening exists should Trump find a way to energize GOP voters, something he is uniquely capable of doing.
If Trump can get the base out to vote – he recently promised to spend the 30 days before midterms campaigning in swing districts and battleground races – then Republicans should be able to bridge the enthusiasm gap.
Republicans also have a large cash advantage. According to FEC filings for July, the Republican National Committee has $130 million in cash, compared to $16 million for the DNC.
When added to the $400 million war chest Trump’s super PAC has built, that is a massive advantage that Republicans can use to cover the airwaves and organize get out the vote efforts.
It should also alarm Democrats that they cannot turn Trump’s dismal approval ratings into a generic ballot lead greater than mid-single digits, as they had in previous midterms.
Finally, Republicans hold a geographic advantage. The Senate map has always been friendly – although polls suggest Democrats are markedly improving in a handful of key states – and Republican-friendly redistricting in a number of states could provide a further boost.
To be clear, this is not to say Republicans are safe – far from it.
They have a razor thin House margin, Trump is deeply unpopular, and the president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterms.
Prediction site Kalshi’s “Balance of Power market” currently gives an 86% combined chance to results involving Democrats controlling the House, including a 47% chance of Democrats flipping both chambers and 39% chance to flip just the House.
Ultimately, whether or not Trump can sufficiently energize Republicans to overcome history, sagging approval ratings, and general, widespread discontent with his policies remains to be seen.
His ability to do just that is unparalleled, yet right now Democrats should feel somewhat comfortable that their voters will come out in considerably higher levels, and if they do, the House will almost certainly flip, and potentially the Senate along with it.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant