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Toni Atkins out, Ian Calderon in. Which Democrat can pull ahead of Porter?

Former California Senate President Toni Atkins announced she is dropping out of the 2026 race for governor, seeing no clear path to victory. Meanwhile, former state Assemblyman Ian Calderon has jumped in the race, hoping his youth (he’s 39) will make him stand out in the crowded field of mostly has-beens.

Atkins joins current Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis as a high-ranking state leader to drop out of the race for the top spot.

Despite having a fairly unique personal backstory as lesbian who grew up in rural Virginia and found the American Dream in California, Atkins simply couldn’t gain traction as a candidate for governor.

A former San Diego Councilmember who spent 14 years in the Legislature — including as Speaker of the Assembly — Atkins had the political chops to move up the ranks in California politics. But it wasn’t enough.

With former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter the frontrunner among Democratic candidates — as of an August poll from the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley — it seems the Democratic electorate is looking for someone more brash and outspoken.

Porter, who served in the House from 2019 to 2025, was less known for her legislative accomplishments (there weren’t many) and more for her fundraising prowess. To the extent Californians know what she’s done, it’s probably from viral clips of her grilling people during congressional hearings.

Porter ultimately flamed out in her run for U.S. Senate last year, placing third behind Republican Steve Garvey and eventual-winner Adam Schiff. So perhaps Porter’s lead is an illusion that has more to do with recent name ID than anything.

This is probably what gives former Assemblyman Ian Calderon some reason to jump into the race. Calderon was elected to the Assembly in his 20s and served from 2012 through 2020, rising up to serve as Majority Leader of the Assembly.

“The people running our government? They’re trying to use yesterday’s ideas to solve today’s problems and it isn’t working,” he said in a video announcing his run.

Calderon also wisely seeks to establish himself as an ordinary Californian, noting his extended time out of public office, talking about “living in the real world, watching everyday life get harder for families like mine.”

Of course, Calderon isn’t exactly an ordinary Californian, coming from the politically well-established and storied Calderon family. He is the son of Charles Calderon, who served in the Assembly and Senate. He’s also the nephew of former Assemblyman Tom Calderon and Sen. Ron Calderon, who were both convicted of corruption. And who succeeded Ian in the Assembly? His stepmother, Lisa Calderon.

Can Ian Calderon really persuade voters to see him as not just another politician and be the one to break Porter’s early lead? We guess we’ll see.

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