Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 6-6-1. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
One month down, and four teams stand alone — four teams, out of 136, that have performed with the highest level of efficiency and dominance.
All hail Mississippi State, Memphis, Utah State and Louisiana Tech.
Wins and losses? Nah. We’re talking point spreads, and they are the only teams with 5-0 records against the number, according to teamrankings.com.
Within the quartet, Louisiana Tech leads the way. The Bulldogs have covered their five games by an average of 15.4 points. Given our full faith in the mantra that good coaches win but great coaches cover, Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie should be considered the frontrunner for national Coach of the Year.
Also worthy of mention: Texas Tech and James Madison, which are 4-0 against the spread.
But that’s it, folks. No other teams have zero losses and zero ties.
The collection of teams at 4-1 includes Oregon and Utah.
The grouping of 3-1 teams includes Boise State, Brigham Young and Arizona.
It’s not difficult to guess which teams occupy the other end of the point-spread spectrum: Oregon State and Stanford are 1-4 while UCLA, although winless on the scoreboard, is 1-3 in the metric that really counts.
We’ll return to this topic in a few weeks. Of that, you can be sure.
To the picks …
Season record: 26-26-1Five-star special: 2-3
All times Pacific
West Virginia (+18.5) at Brigham YoungKickoff: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPNComment: The Mountaineers just lost at home to Utah by 34 and must fly across the country on a short week to face a granite defense. Is 18.5 the halftime line? Pick: BYU
Oklahoma State (+20.5) at ArizonaKickoff: 12 p.m. on TNTComment: If this is close in the fourth quarter, something has gone very wrong for the Wildcats, who have played well at home and are facing an opponent with an interim coach. The Cowboys are allowing 213 rushing yards per game — only UCLA is worse among teams in the power conferences — so Arizona tailback Ismail Mahdi should have a big day. That said, we’re wary of the back-door cover with a garbage-time touchdown. Pick: Oklahoma State
Oregon State (+1.5) at Appalachian StateKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN+Comment: The Mountaineers lost in lopsided fashion last week at Boise State — clearly, this isn’t one of ASU’s better teams. Which means the Beavers, who played well for long stretches against Houston, have a terrific opportunity to collect their first win … if they can run the ball successfully and avoid breakdowns on special teams. Pick: Oregon State
Washington (-6.5) at MarylandKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Big Ten NetworkComment: As competitive disadvantages go, this is an all-timer offered up to Washington by the Big Ten: The Huskies are coming off the loss to Ohio State and must cross the country to face an undefeated home team that had two weeks to prepare. (At least it doesn’t start at 9 a.m. Pacific.) So why are the Huskies favored by 6.5 points? It appears the betting public doesn’t trust the Terps. We do. Pick: Maryland
Penn State (-25.5) at UCLAKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBSComment: We expect the Nittany Lions to be at considerably less than their best after the gut-punch loss to Oregon and a long trip to play a winless opponent. The Bruins should muster their best effort of the season, which won’t power them to victory but should be enough to cover a massive intra-conference spread. Pick: UCLA
Vanderbilt (+10.5) at AlabamaKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABCComment: Competing dynamics are at work here with Alabama likely in a post-Georgia letdown mode but also motivated to avenge last year’s stunning loss at Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, the Commodores, led by quarterback Diego Pavia, are unfazed, undaunted and undefeated. Pick: Vanderbilt
Boise State (+20.5) at Notre DameKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on NBCComment: Nothing about the performance of either team thus far suggests this anticipated matchup will mirror Boise State’s thriller at Oregon last year. The Broncos aren’t as good as they were (no Ashton Jeanty), and the Irish present different problems than did the Ducks. Close early. Not close late. Pick: Notre Dame.
Miami (-4.5) at Florida StateKickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABCComment: It’s like old times in Tallahassee with both teams ranked. If Florida State executes as well as it did against Alabama in the season opener, it should be close for 55 minutes. We see Miami’s play at the line of scrimmage being the difference down the stretch. Pick: Miami
Colorado (+13.5) at TCUKickoff: 4:30 p.m. on FoxComment: The Buffaloes aren’t on the verge of collapse — the situation isn’t that bad in Boulder, yet. But we’re deeply skeptical about this matchup. The Horned Frogs have a gifted quarterback in Josh Hoover and should exploit CU’s porous pass defense, which ranks 13th in the conference in yards-per-attempt allowed (7.6). Pick: TCU
Duke (-3) at CalKickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPNComment: Yes, the Bears (4-1) are home underdogs against an opponent that lost at Tulane, was blasted at home by Illinois and is playing its second consecutive road game. We think the wrong team is favored. Justin Wilcox as a home underdog on Homecoming? Yes, please. Pick: Cal
Straight-up winners: BYU, Arizona, Oregon State, Maryland, Penn State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, TCU and Cal
Five-star special: UCLA. Investing a morsel of faith in the reeling Bruins against a top-10 team like Penn State makes absolutely zero sense, which is exactly why we’re doing it. Also, the Nittany Lions will bring less than their best to Southern California.
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