‘Where we need vision, we have a vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift.’
Those were the words of Wes Streeting in his devastating resignation letter to Sir Keir Starmer as he resigned as Health Secretary and urged the Prime Minister to step down.
But as the dust settles on Streeting breaking cover to confirm his departure, that vacuum has only deepened.
As it stands, we appear to be in the same statement that has been in place since Tuesday. 90 MPs and counting have now called on Keir Starmer to resign, but he has singularly refused to do so.
As the impasse continues, and with Streeting refusing (or being unable) to challenge the Prime Minister directly to a leadership contest, everyone is asking what happens next.
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Metro spoke to Rohan McWilliam, Director of the Labour History Reasearch Unit at Anglia Ruskin University, and a Professor of Modern British History, to try and make sense of the current state of play.
Summing up the situation as it stands, Prof. McWilliam said: ‘We know there is going to be a leadership challenge –just not yet.
‘British politics is essentially waiting on Andy Burnham. Streeting’s resignation letter speaks of a leadership candidate with the ‘best possible candidates’ which sounds like an attempt to make a deal for a post-Starmer government.
‘At the moment it is far from clear that any MP is going to stand down for Burnham and, if anyone does, it cannot be taken for granted that Burnham would win the subsequent by-election. Starmer is determined to fight on.’
Given that Streeting didn’t directly challenge the Prime Minister, it has been assumed by those both opposed to him, and in favour, that he lacks the 81 MPs needed to faciliate that.
Prof. McWiliam added: ‘The Labour rulebook states that 20% of Labour MPs have to back a challenger (which is 81 members of the current intake).
‘If there is a challenge Starmer would be a candidate under the rules, unless he resigns. Labour members then vote with a preferential ballot and the candidate who gets 50%, once all preferences are counted, wins.’
For Keir Starmer himself, if he does decide that he can’t actually continue, there are two options for his resignation, and neither of them are particularly appealing.
As Prof. McWilliam explained: ‘If Starmer resigns now there would have to be a replacement within the cabinet.
‘This makes the appointment of a caretaker Prime Minister likely—perhaps a senior figure like Yvette Cooper or John Healey.
‘If he says he will go at the time of the party conference in September (which is thought to favour Andy Burnham) then Starmer becomes a lame duck Prime Minister and government will all but grind to a halt.’
If this all feels like unchartered territory for the Labour Party in government, that’s because it is.
Unlike the Conservatives, with their seemingly endless defenstrations, the Labour party, as Prof. McWilliam points out, ‘Does not have a history of regicide.
‘There is no Labour equivalent of Boris Johnson or Liz Truss. The closest equivalent would be the attempt to eject Jeremy Corbyn from the leadership after the Brexit referendum but he was not Prime Minister.
‘Corbyn lost the confidence of his MPs but kept going because he had the support of the party membership at large.
‘There were also challenges to Hugh Gaitskell in 1960 and to Neil Kinnock in 1988, which were seen off.’
More broadly, and as a sign of our increasingly fractured political system, Prof. McWilliam notes ‘It is worth remembering that it was unusual for Prime Ministers to be challenged before the ejection of Margaret Thatcher in 1990.
‘Since then it has become of a feature of British politics, especially since 2016.’
With Keir Starmer seemingly up for the fight, some have suggested that the Prime Minister might ‘do a John Major’ and announce a contest himself to put the issue to bed once and for all.
Who should replaceme Starmer as PM?
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No one – he should stay
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Has to be Andy Burnham
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Bring back Angela Rayner
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Streeting all the way
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Someone else
On that, Prof. McWilliam sounds a note of caution, adding ‘I think it is doubtful that Starmer would initiate a leadership contest himself.
‘John Major’s standing was damaged by John Redwood’s candidacy even though he won the contest, so for the Prime Minister, the precedents aren’t good.
‘For members, the choice would probably be Starmer, Streeting and Angela Rayner (now cleared over her tax affairs).’
With the atmosphere in Westminster febrile, where we might find ourselves in a day, a week, or even a year, seems increasingly difficult to predict.
But there is at least clarity on what happens in the immediate future.
For Keir Starmer, that will be small comfort.
Do you have a story you’d like to share? Get in touch by emailing Ross.Mccafferty@metro.co.uk.
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