Today I’m going to take you on a dark voyage into the deepest, coldest backwaters of Labour MPs’ minds and attempt to answer a question that many of them may not even dare to contemplate…
What if Andy Burnham loses?
Perhaps the picture will become clearer as we get closer to the Makerfield by-election day, but for now there’s still no guarantee how things will pan out.
Much of the commentary so far has not only speculated about how Andy Burnham might act after he’s elected, but also how he might govern if he’s successful in overthrowing Sir Keir Starmer and replacing him as Prime Minister.
In this scenario, we get to find out whether Labour can win over the public again under a leader who is miles more popular, and whether a fresh approach could get the country back on track more quickly.
But let’s be clear – the challenge ahead for the Mayor of Greater Manchester is formidable.
Every pollster in the country will tell you the constituency of Makerfield would vote Reform UK if virtually any other candidate was running for Labour.
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Meanwhile, the press is scrutinising Burnham to a degree far beyond the norm for a by-election, because the assumption is that he’ll become PM if he bags victory.
And Reform has picked a local as their candidate: Robert Kenyon, rather cringily dubbed the ‘Plucky Plumber’ by Nigel Farage, who has a decent CV as a former Army reservist and NHS worker (even if he does have a bit of a dodgy social media history).
As much as Burnham-backers might not like to think about it, all the ingredients are there for a monumental upset. And then what?
First of all, you wouldn’t want to be Josh Simons in that situation. As the Labour MP who stood down to allow Burnham a shot at returning to the Commons, he’d argue it was worth the gamble.
However, the impact would be much broader than just one less MP for Labour and one more for Reform. It would be proof that Farage’s candidates can beat any Labour figure anywhere, and the momentum would be near unstoppable.
That’s before you get to the impact on the government. Starmer has been floating in something akin to political purgatory since his party’s dire May 7 elections, and such a result would lock that feeling in for even longer.
Wes Streeting would probably launch a leadership bid, which would probably prompt a counterbid from Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband (despite both having said they really, really don’t want to be Labour leader).
I struggle to see how Streeting could possibly win over the Labour members to emerge on top. And I reckon Starmer would win over any others – including Rayner and Miliband – by playing the ‘stability’ card.
Burnham is the single option on the table who’s properly popular with the public. Is it truly worth risking Tory-style chaos for anyone else?
So, in my opinion, there’s every chance a Burnham loss in Makerfield would lock in Starmer until the next general election. Whether that would be a good thing for a) the country, b) the Labour Party, and c) Nigel Farage’s prospects of becoming the next PM, is up in the air.
You can see why some would prefer to avoid thinking about it at all.
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