What would it look like if the UK was to break apart – and how likely is it?

‘I’ve never been interested in the break-up of the UK,’ Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said at a press conference yesterday.

On the face of it, that was an odd statement. He’s leader of Wales’s main pro-independence party, and had just left an unprecedented summit with leaders from fellow anti-Union parties Sinn Fein and the SNP.

But as he continued, it was clear it was a matter of framing: ‘We’re talking about having the tools to build a future for our people through the right of self-determination. It is a wholly positive outlook and vision that we have.’

The ‘break-up of the UK’, then, is not the aim of the national leaders who gathered in Cardiff this morning – it’s merely the outcome.

In a world where those four people – Scottish First Minister John Swinney, Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill, Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald and ap Iorwerth, who is First Minister of Wales – achieve their political ambitions, only England would be left in the UK.

Which would probably make the name ‘United Kingdom’ a bit redundant.

However, there would be plenty of other almighty changes beyond just the name – or, for that matter, the flag – if the country splits apart into an independent Wales, England and Scotland and a reunified Ireland.

Metro asked politics expert Alistair Jones, a former associate professor at De Montfort University, about some of the less obvious consequences.

Ireland

The reunification of Ireland was unexpectedly launched to the top of the news agenda last week, when US President Donald Trump said he would ‘love to see’ the island unified and proclaimed: ‘It’s going to happen eventually’.

Mary Lou McDonald – typically a fierce critic of Trump, particularly over his stance on Israel and Gaza – said his comments showed that ‘the unity debate is very much alive’.

Alistair Jones pointed out that Northern Ireland has an unusual position in the UK post-Brexit, where it remains in the EU single market.

He said: ‘If Northern Ireland is reunified, then we have that huge border, and access to the European single market becomes a little bit more difficult again.

‘Those businesses that were based in both Great Britain and Northern Ireland being able to access a single market, they would lose that automatically.

‘On the other side of the coin, things such as Britain’s military presence is removed. So suddenly, we have a number of soldiers that are being moved to barracks in Great Britain and potentially being removed from the army because they’re surplus to requirements.’

Scotland

Polls suggest Scotland is more likely to take the big constitutional leap than Northern Ireland or Wales.

There’s a strong majority in the Scottish Parliament for pro-independence parties – as there has been since 2011 – and poll aggregators suggest the ‘yes’ vote has recently had a consistent lead over the ‘no’ vote.

One of the most immediate and drastic impacts of Scotland leaving the UK would be ‘trying to work out where the border is drawn in international waters’, said Alistair, due to the ‘huge oil reserves’ in the North Sea.

He also highlighted one of the big sticking points in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum – currency. Scotland could continue to use the pound in the short term, but may need to transfer to the euro as a requirement for rejoining the EU.

However, Alistair added: ‘If you look at the United States of America, or Germany, or Australia, they’ve actually got more powers than those federal states have got.

‘So, in some respects, Scotland is already in a weird position in that, in a number of areas, they’re acting akin to an independent state.

‘So, I think that final transition would actually be less problematic for the Scots and less visible for the rest of us who are living in England.’

Wales

In comparison, Wales appears much further away from any serious tilt at independence.

Polling suggests the move would be opposed by a strong majority in the country, and Plaid Cymru do not command a majority in the Senedd despite its status as the largest party.

At this year’s elections, the party did not call for a referendum, but instead asked for greater devolution of powers to bring the country somewhat level with Scotland.

Alistair said: ‘The Welsh economy is hugely intertwined with that of England, so any separation is going to be very, very difficult indeed.

‘Simply because so many of the UK businesses that are in both England and Wales are based in England and use Wales as a source of resources.’

England

England is the one country in the UK that does not have a devolved parliament – and therefore, it’s in the odd position of risking becoming independent by default if the other parts leave.

But according to Alistair, the consolation is that ‘people in England would not notice much difference’.

He said: ‘Where they might see some difference would be if they wanted to go to Scotland or Wales on holiday, for example, they’re going to be passports.

‘On top of that, I suspect that the price of whisky will become slightly more expensive as Scotch and malt whiskies coming down from Scotland are likely to have duties placed on them, in particular if Scotland’s in the EU and England remains outside.’

Is the UK going to break apart?

According to a new Ipsos poll, less than a quarter (24%) of British adults believe the UK will still exist in its current form in 20 years’ time.

That figure only rises to 34% on a ten-year timescale and 55% for five years.

However, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said a Scottish independence referendum is ‘off limits’ in a recent letter to John Swinney, saying there is ‘no consensus’ for one and adding there is ‘no clear basis to suggest’ that most people in Northern Ireland want to leave the UK.

That didn’t stop Swinney making the bold prediction today that Burnham will prove to be ‘the last prime minister of the United Kingdom’.

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