Click here for a look at the Bears’ worst-case scenario.
Nobody painted a best-case scenario like former Bears coach Matt Nagy, who said going into his fourth season the offense was on the verge of breaking through. He was so wrong about it that he gave up play-calling after three games.
When those who run Halas Hall now, mainly general manager Ryan Poles and coach Ben Johnson, present an optimistic outlook, it’s more grounded. There might be some hope that ends up appearing misplaced in hindsight, but at least it’s plausible at the time.
If things go as well as reasonably possible for the Bears, they could one-up last season and go 12-5 to take the NFC North for the second time in a row. The road to that destination would start with a convincing win at the Panthers in the season opener Sunday.
Most of their faith is in quarterback Caleb Williams, which is equal parts belief in his talent and confidence in Johnson’s ability to maximize him. It all starts there: Williams needs to be in the top quarter of NFL starters.
The fanbase might think he already is, but that’s overexuberant. He’ll get there, though, if he finds the right blend between his improvisational skills and the machinelike precision and timing Johnson is teaching.
In a review of every pass play from last season, Johnson pointed out roughly 100 of Williams’ 238 incomplete passes that he should’ve hit. Making good on even 40 of those would’ve bumped his completion percentage from 58.1 to 65.1, and at Williams’ average of 11.9 yards per completion, his yardage would’ve jumped from 231.9 (12th in the league) to 259.9 (fourth).
Potential must become production. It’s his second season under Johnson and third overall, which is typically when great quarterbacks show concrete proof of where they’re headed.
If Williams does all that, the Bears will have a chance every week. He could use a little help from a breakout season by wide receiver Rome Odunze and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo — working back from a knee injury — stepping into the starting lineup early in the season.
It’s harder to buy into the defense, but maybe the Bears will be right about their pass-rushing combo of Montez Sweat and Austin Booker. Maybe defensive tackle Grady Jarrett has a resurgence in him. Maybe they found a hidden gem in sixth-round pick Jordan van den Berg at defensive tackle.
If enough of those maybes become yesses, the Bears could have a league-average defensive line, and that’d be an improvement from last season.
They’d also love to put this Kyler Gordon saga behind them.
Gordon missed most of last season with three injuries, then got hurt again in the offseason and missed all of training camp. He’ll be out at least the first four games, but if he comes back as Spiderman at nickel cornerback in Week 5, that’ll be forgotten quickly. He’s elite at his position when healthy.
And when teams use a first-round pick on a safety, as the Bears did by drafting Dillon Thieneman 25th overall, they’re expecting instant impact. The Bears are depending on that, especially after veteran safety Coby Bryant got hurt in camp, and Thieneman has looked ready at every checkpoint so far.
Bryant’s potentially season-ending knee injury was brutal and a reminder of how fortunate the Bears were last season. About half the starting lineup missed some time in camp this year, and they’ll need that to be the end of their bad luck.
Existentially, the Bears’ best-case scenario is the rest of the North enduring a worst-case scenario. It’d be awfully helpful if the Packers, Lions and Vikings remained mediocre.
That’s the equation if everything goes right this season. To whatever extent it doesn’t, the Bears’ record will slip accordingly. But the good news for them is that while that’s quite a rosy hypothetical, it’s all possible.