Why Broncos’ Troy Franklin has supplanted Courtland Sutton in WR1 volume

This was a play Sean Payton liked, designed for the most reliable third-down and red-zone pass catcher on the Broncos roster.

Courtland Sutton zigged from the left side of the formation to the right late in the fourth quarter against the Eagles, toeing the line as Bo Nix’s first option. He usually was, in these situations. Third-and-8. Ball on Philadelphia’s 12-yard line. Two minutes left. But Eagles corner Cooper DeJean shadowed Sutton to the right side, and gestured come here to safety Reed Blankenship.

As Sutton broke off a slant, Blankenship veered over to double Sutton, and Nix shot only a split-second glance in his WR1’s direction before scrapping the play and taking a 1-yard loss.

The Broncos won the game. They’ve won every game since. But their offense has sputtered at times, as defenses have increasingly showered more attention on Nix’s 6-foot-4 safety blanket. After a four-target, three-catch day against the Raiders, Sutton has just 15 catches on 29 targets in his last five games. Head coach Sean Payton specifically noted that route against the Eagles — the last play of the game — as evidence of secondaries shading in Sutton’s direction.

“Last week, we got some safety lean,” Payton said. “And so when you’re looking at the pictures, you’re discussing the coverage, and a handful of it was – ‘lean-14.’”

The prevalence of “Lean-14” has helped orchestrate a notable shift in Payton’s offense. Through 10 weeks in 2025, Sutton is seeing his lowest percentage of targets per route in any year since his comeback from a torn ACL in 2021. And second-year wideout Troy Franklin could well become the first receiver to supplant him in total targets — now at 73 to Sutton’s 66 — in any healthy season since Sutton’s rookie year in 2018.

More defensive attention on Sutton will only mean more offensive attention for Franklin. And Denver’s staff has expressed faith in the 22-year-old wideout to handle that kind of leap.

“He’s a player that we keep gaining confidence in,” Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said. “He keeps producing for us.”

The efficiency tells a more muddled story. Franklin has drawn 37 targets in the last four weeks and turned them into four touchdowns. But he has caught just 18 — less than half — for 175 yards. He has been one of the most prevalent red-zone and screen-game targets in the entire NFL in 2025, but has struggled mightily for a second straight year to connect with Nix on deep balls.

“As far as those deeper ones, he’ll continue to get those opportunities, and he’ll continue to make ‘em … sometimes it’s the law of averages,” receivers coach Keary Colbert told The Denver Post Thursday. “Sometimes, it’s not gonna always work out.”

The Broncos gambled at the trade deadline, trusting in that law of averages and trusting their prior investment in their receiver room. Rumors tied them to Miami’s Jaylen Waddle and the New York Jets’ Garrett Wilson. Denver didn’t swing a hefty enough offer for anyone, and didn’t even reach out on Wilson.

Asked after the deadline if that gave him confidence, Franklin told The Post: “Hell yeah.”

“It gives everybody confidence — not that we’re worried about somebody coming to take our job or anything, but we don’t have to worry about that,” Franklin said. “And, we can just really go out there and play.”

The Broncos need Franklin to play, because defenses are giving Sutton so much attention. As usual, Sutton has not complained. Or demanded the ball. Or dropped any sort of cryptic messaging on social media. And Colbert told The Denver Post on Thursday that target distribution isn’t anything the room’s looked at.

But Sutton understands this defensive focus and the effect it has.

“They may shade to my side a certain percent of the time, but the percent that they don’t, if there is an opportunity — I have to make sure I’m ready to go out there and execute and perform, and make a play,” Sutton said. “And so I prepare as if teams aren’t going to do it, and if they do, then I understand that that’s going to open up opportunities for other guys to be able to make plays.”

Take an early second down against the Raiders, when Franklin and Sutton both ran deep-breaking routes from out wide. Safety Jeremy Chinn dropped more to Sutton’s side of the field. And Sutton’s seen a drastic shift in the nature of his looks since that Philadelphia game, after he spent the first five weeks making late-down magic with Nix.

Through that Week 5 matchup with the Eagles, 54% of Sutton’s targets were coming on third or fourth down. In the five weeks since, that’s dropped to 33%.

“You gotta make some hay either opposite of that, or you’ve gotta move 14 and put him in positions where it’s a little bit more difficult to do that,” Payton said.

“I think a lot of it’s depending on the defensive coordinator. And it may be red-zone or it may be third-down, but we’ve certainly seen it.”

Sunday could bring heavy doses of Sutton doubles, as longtime Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will “try to take away your targets in certain situations,” Payton said. Franklin has made remarkable year-over-year strides in expanding his game since college, as his percentage of routes run from the slot has leapt in his two pro seasons.

If Sutton finds Chiefs safeties leaning his way, the Broncos may need continued growth from Franklin against Kansas City — and in the stretch run to come.

“He’s been the lead dog here for years,” Colbert said of Sutton. “So he’s going to get a lot of attention as far as coverage, and it’s our job to be available in other spots.”

Courtland Sutton’s year-over-year Broncos usage (minus injury-shortened 2020)

Source: Data compiled by The Denver Post from Next Gen Stats

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