At 93 years young, Chuck Neinas has watched colleges burn money on football since Bunny Oakes was hopping on the sidelines at CU.
But he’s never seen a bonfire like this before. Penn State, LSU, Florida, Arkansas, UCLA and Oregon State have all fired their football coaches before Halloween. ESPN.com published a report on Tuesday estimating contract buyouts for fired Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) coaches are up to roughly $168 million so far.
“There used to be (scenarios where) you got a four-year deal (to coach),” Neinas, the former Big 12 and Big Eight commissioner who calls Boulder County home, told The Denver Post. “They’d stay with you four years. Because the first year, you can forget it. The second year, you think, you’d see some improvements. The third year, you should be a winning team. Now, Christ Almighty, they let (coaches) go after two years.”
In the case of the CSU Rams, three years and change. On Oct. 19, CSU fired Jay Norvell seven games into his fourth season at the helm. The buyout was $1.5 million, which is roughly the same as CSU’s postseason revenue distribution from the Mountain West in the 2023-24 fiscal year ($1.6 million). And about half what the Rams collected in ticket revenue from the ’23 football season ($3.7 million), Norvell’s second with the program.
But what prompted the Rams’ first mid-season firing of a football coach since 1981? What will the spate of big-time job openings mean for CSU’s search? And why would CSU jump feet-first, in the middle of the autumn, into the most expensive open coaching market in modern college football history?
The short answer can be broken down into four Cs: The candidates, the calendar, the cost, and the conference.
1. The conference
Let’s start with the obvious one, but one that’s driven most major CSU athletic decisions over the last 10-12 months: The Pac-12 Conference.
The Rams are slated to join a revamped, expanded Pac-12 next July — a collective which, for football, will link five of the biggest gridiron programs in the Mountain West (CSU, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State) with Pac-12 holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, along with Texas State from the Sun Belt.
CSU has been fundraising and marketing heavily on becoming part of the Pac-12, even though the largest names to shape the legacy of that brand now play in the Big Ten (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington), the Big 12 (CU, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State) or the ACC (Stanford, Cal).
But having been rebuffed by the Big 12 in its expansion efforts over the last decade or so, this is the Rams’ chance to be seen as “stepping up” a level — even if experts estimate that the financial benefits, at least in terms of broadcast rights, may not improve all that significantly.
The Pac-12 is largely a perception bump. And in terms of how CSU is perceived when compared to the Broncos, Bulldogs, Aztecs, Aggies, Cougars and Beavers, the returns under Norvell weren’t promising. Since 2022, the Rams have posted a 4-9 record against members of the new-look Pac-12. That would translate to a 3-6 conference record, on average, over a nine-game league slate.
“Coach Norvell built momentum for a program that deeply needed it,” athletic director John Weber said on Oct. 20. “But, ultimately, progress was challenged. And progress stalled at a very critical time for us as we ascend into the Pac-12.”
2. The calendar
College football programs want new leadership, or stability, in place before the early signing period for high school recruits, which runs from Dec. 3-5. Even more importantly, the new single transfer portal window for FBS programs runs Jan. 2-16.
For schools that have undergone a coaching change like CSU, the current roster will have a 15-day window in which to enter the portal that begins five days after a new coach is announced or hired. That makes being in position to restock the roster after inevitable turnover of utmost importance.
“To me, when you make the decision to move when (the Rams) did, they feel the (timing) is important,” CBS Sports football analyst and former CU football coach Rick Neuheisel told The Post. “So clearly, they have somebody that they’re wanting to get to (hire) before that entity or person can be lured by others.
“Now that’s just a guess. But there’s no reason to do that and put every (Rams player) in the portal for a month unless they just felt (certain about a candidate).”
Norvell’s dismissal was the earliest CSU has moved on from a football coach, mid-season, since 1981, when Sarkis Arslanian was ousted after an 0-6 start. The Rams finished 0-12 under defensive coordinator/interim coach Chester Caddas that fall.
If recent history is any indicator, the Rams also acted early to a.) get ahead of a crowded market; b.) line up as many chess pieces as possible toward landing their top target or targets.
CU let former Buffs football coach Karl Dorrell go after an 0-5 start on Oct. 2, 2022. Almost exactly two months later, Jackson State coach Deion Sanders was announced as Dorrell’s replacement.
CU athletic director Rick George said when “Coach Prime” was introduced in December 2022 that he had personally spent much of the previous two months wooing the Pro Football Hall-of-Famer, who was reportedly weighing other offers.
It’s safe to assume Weber is in a similar mode — or soon will be.
“From a timing perspective, it allows us to run a very exhaustive search,” the CSU administrator said last month. “In conjunction with the search firm that we’re going to use, it’s going to be able to present, I think, a lot of options and allow us to make a very informed, non-rushed decision on the next person to lead our program.”
3. The cost
The only bit of business better than being an FBS coach these days is becoming an ex-FBS coach. LSU paid Brian Kelly $54 million last week to get lost. Penn State gave James Franklin $49 million to do the same. Florida pushed Billy Napier out the door with a $21 million golden parachute. Mike Gundy (fired) just got $15 million from Oklahoma State; Sam Pittman (also fired) got $9.8 million from Arkansas; DeShaun Foster (ditto) got $5 million from UCLA; Trent Bray (same) got $4 million from Oregon State.
The total buyout bonfire could run close to $200 million by early December. By comparison, FBS schools last year spent roughly $36 million in order to expedite the termination of head coach contracts.
Why are schools willing to burn through cash? Follow the money. Or rather, follow the boosters, businesses and alumni who keep forking it over.
Because of the House vs. NCAA settlement earlier this year, college athletic departments can now share revenue with student-athletes. The new line item on the budget has forced schools to cut staff, cut sports, cut budgets — while also looking for new and more lucrative revenue streams such as increased advertising or third-party funding via private equity partnerships.
Those who are footing the bills to obtain or keep student-athletes expect a return on their investment. And, as Neuheisel pointed out, they also demand a louder voice in athletic department discussions.
“We have a lot of pseudo-owners now (in college football),” Neuheisel said. “I don’t know the infrastructure at CSU … but when you invite money into your home, you’ve now invited (that money’s) opinion into your home. And when they start saying, ‘My opinion will be adhered to, or the money dries up,’ you’re kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place.”
The College Football Playoff TV contracts pay out $1.3 billion annually. The 12 teams that participated in the 2024-25 playoff, including Mountain West/Pac-12 rival Boise State, received $4 million just for making the field — as well as a $3 million stipend to cover expenses for every round in which they participate.
As one of the four highest-ranked conference champions selected to the CFP, Boise pocketed $8 million from the postseason bracket, according to the Sports Business Journal. Weber has made no secret about his desire to see Rams football follow, or surpass, the Broncos as one of the pre-eminent non-Power-4 programs nationally.
“I set the vision for Colorado State to become the most loved, most watched, most innovative athletics program in the West,” Weber said.
The portal has created free agency for the talent pool — just like in the NFL. Revenue-sharing in the wake of the House settlement more or less puts players on a quasi-payroll — just like in the NFL. Football programs now have “general managers” who budget who gets paid what — just like in the NFL.
Is it any wonder that NFL-like job security for head coaches has arrived at the highest level of amateur football?
“No one’s patient in this world,” Sanders said during his weekly news conference last Tuesday. “How do we exude patience when we could call up right now and get a pizza delivery right here, (or) that you could call and get a ride waiting outside for you.
“… Ain’t nobody got no patience no more. I understand that. And I don’t (have it), either … I want things done right now, because I’m used to getting up there working, putting in the work, and you want the results from the work you put in. (But) it don’t oftentimes work like that.”
4. The candidates
Weber has not said much publicly about specific criteria for Norvell’s replacement, other than noting that previous head-coaching experience would be “nice.”
“In terms of what (traits) we’re looking for, about the only thing that I’m going to say is that it needs to be collaborative,” the administrator said on Oct. 20. “We’ve entered an era in collegiate sports, and football in particular, where as a university, we all need to collaborate to ensure that we can be as successful as we possibly can.”
The sheer amount of dollars involved in big-time college football searches has made for some strange collaborations elsewhere — and even stranger bedfellows. Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry raised eyebrows this past week when he interjected himself into the search for Brian Kelly’s replacement, noting that he’d rather see President Donald Trump select the next Tigers football coach “before I let (athletic director Scott Woodward) do it.” Woodward resigned on Thursday.
“Remember what (former Alabama coach) Nick Saban said?” Neinas chuckled. “He said, ‘It’s the money.’ It’s the NIL (Name/Image/Likeness compensation) and the portal and all that. He’s obviously better qualified than I, and he points out that when you get the people giving money to the NIL, it means (the donors) feel they get a voice as to how to run the football program.”
Neinas, who has consulted on high-profile football and men’s basketball coaching hires, says he would like to see CSU lean on some veteran administrative voices to help steer its next football hire. He pointed out one in particular — Mike Bohn, a longtime colleague and the former athletic director at CU and USC, whose resume includes stints at CSU and at Air Force.
“I never talked to an agent in all the searches I did,” Neinas said. “I talked directly to the coach.
“What you’re looking for is leadership. I don’t know how many coaching interviews I’ve been through, but no one’s asked, ‘How do you block this type of I-formation?’ What you’ve got to do is find a leader. That’s the most important role for the head coach.”
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