It’s safe to say the question of who will become the next Prime Minister appears to have been settled.
Barring a contest, Andy Burnham is almost certain to walk through the door of No 10 next month, becoming the first PM in more than 60 years who wasn’t voted in at the previous election.
Attention is now turning to the people who will make up his top team – and his next moves will be critical.
Burnham will need to pick a Cabinet that is fresh enough to mark a clean break from the Starmer era, but experienced enough that it doesn’t mean starting from scratch on the big issues of the day.
Any controversial choices could also mean he quickly burns through the goodwill of the public. That could be a big problem, as his popularity is a big reason why many in Labour want him to replace Sir Keir.
His biggest decision will be who to appoint as his Chancellor. This will signal to businesses, markets, and the broader country how he seeks to handle the UK economy.
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Here are a few of the options he could choose between.
Ed Miliband
Miliband is one of Andy Burnham’s biggest supporters in the Starmer Cabinet – to an extent that has reportedly put him in the PM’s bad books.
Even before Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election last week, the current Energy Secretary was considered the most likely choice to become Chancellor under the ex-Greater Manchester Mayor.
He has a depth of experience in the Treasury, dating back to his time working as the Chairman of Gordon Brown’s Council of Economic Advisers more than 20 years ago.
However, there has been plenty of briefings against him in recent days, out of concern this pick would mean a sharp shift to the left.
It would also mean a return to an earlier generation of Labour politicians: we’d go from Keir Starmer (elected 2015) and Rachel Reeves (elected 2010) to a pair of MPs who first served in government under Tony Blair.
Wes Streeting
The former Health Secretary made no secret of his ambitions to win the Labour leadership after he resigned in the way of the May 7 election results.
But that changed dramatically yesterday, minutes after Keir Starmer walked back inside No 10 after his resignation speech.
Streeting’s letter announcing he would instead throw his weight behind Burnham led some to question whether he had been promised a Cabinet position in return.
He has denied that was the case, telling the BBC: ‘He has not offered me any jobs. That’s not what our conversations have been about. This has been about ideas.’
The bookies have him as one of the top picks for the Treasury role, as a ticket which would balance a PM on Labour’s so-called ‘soft left’ with a Chancellor closer to the right of the party.
Rachel Reeves
As Keir Starmer mulled his departure on Saturday, the Times published an article saying Rachel Reeves would be booted out as Chancellor when he goes.
This was no real surprise – nobody has been more tightly tied to Starmer’s premiership than Reeves, who was also behind some of the most unpopular policy decisions of his two years in charge.
She may make the case that keeping her in place would ensure stability, but every other minister could make that case too. It seems clear her time is up.
Pat McFadden
This would be another surprise pick from Burnham, as the current Work and Pensions Secretary has gained a reputation as one of Starmer’s most loyal ministers.
But he would also come with a wealth of experience – his current remit is closely linked with the Treasury, as is the Business Department where he worked in the previous Labour government.
McFadden was a top pick to replace Reeves when it briefly looked like she might be on the way out last year. He may be the ultimate market-reassuring ‘safe pair of hands’.
Who else?
At this early stage, there’s a lot of uncertainty over who Burnham might pick for any position. His long time away from Westminster means there are many MPs he doesn’t know particularly well – or at all.
He might reward some of his closest allies in the Commons, such as Anneliese Midgley or ex-Transport Secretary Louise Haigh.
Or he might pluck current Cabinet ministers like Shabana Mahmood – whom he has praised – or Yvette Cooper – another figure with extensive experience – from their roles.
With such a short timeline before he could bag the top job, he may need to decide sooner than he’d like.
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