Following a series of off-year election wins, and amid growing frustration with the Trump administration, Democrats’ 2028 chances look much brighter than last year at this time.
As such, California Gov. Gavin Newsom – the current Democratic frontrunner – would figure to have a slightly easier path to the Oval Office, assuming he wins the nomination.
That being said, while Newsom has very successfully built his national profile, it would be a mistake to overlook his numerous vulnerabilities, any of which could derail his presidential ambitions.
Certainly, the biggest risk to Newsom is his own record in California.
Indeed, the Golden State ranks #50 in affordability according to a US News & World Report ranking at a time when that issue is paramount.
Moreover, despite having the nation’s top-ranked business environment, an economy bigger than India or the United Kingdom, and the benefit of being the home of Silicon Valley, California ranks near the bottom on economic growth (45th).
Worse still, even with California’s tax rate among the highest in the country, the state ranks 42nd in terms of its fiscal stability.
To be sure, mismanaging California’s finances has been a feature – rather than a bug – of Newsom’s tenure.
From FY 2018-2019 – the year before Newsom took office – California’s budget has grown by roughly 61%, a staggering figure.
California’s $18 billion shortfall – the fourth consecutive year with a deficit – is set to nearly double to $35 billion by FY 2027-2028 according to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Office.
To that end, it’s not simply that Newsom oversaw massive spending and government expansion that makes him particularly vulnerable on his record.
Rather, it’s that despite significant spending, Newsom has not delivered solutions to the real problems facing the state.
Homelessness – which California has spent $24 billion combatting since 2019 per analysis from the Hoover Institution – continues to plague the state.
In fact, from 2019 to 2024, the homeless population increased by “about 30,000, to more than 181,000….California spent the equivalent of about $160,000 per person (based on the 2019 figure)” over five years, yet the situation has only gotten worse.
Going hand in hand with homelessness is the crime situation. Ranking just 43rd on public safety is not a record to stand on when Americans are concerned about the safety of our streets.
The same goes for immigration, where Newsom took center stage pushing back on Trump.
Americans may dislike Trump’s heavy-handedness when it comes to deportations, but they do not want candidates advocating for open borders and amnesty for all.
It’s easy to imagine Newsom’s Republican – or Democrat – opponents seizing on perceptions of him as weak on crime and too far-left on immigration to hammer him in swing states.
To be clear, this is not to say Newsom has no shot.
Right now, he’d likely win the Democratic nomination and then could very well win the general election.
Fresh off a high profile Proposition 50 win, Newsom’s popularity has soared at home, reaching 56% favorability in polling from the Public Policy Institute of California – up 10-points from June.
Similarly, he remains the top choice among Democrats for their party’s 2028 nominee, leading Kamala Harris by 6-points (26% to 20%) per RealClearPolitics.
Newsom has also emerged as the most vocal Democratic leader at a time when the party has a large leadership vacuum.
Further, he is an extremely savvy politician who has taken steps to shift perceptions that he is too far-left.
This much was on display when Democrats were shunning anyone opposed to their platform, yet Newsom hosted right-wing stalwarts Steve Bannon and the late Charlie Kirk on his podcast.
He’s also gone on Fox News for debates with conservative hosts, and – vocally at least – come out against some far-left policies as a way of trying to remedy his vulnerabilities.
Conversely, California is not remotely representative of the country as a whole.
Thus, Newsom’s popularity is unlikely to translate, and it’s dubious whether his rhetoric will make up for his record.
Put another way, Newsom has an uphill challenge convincing voters across the country that his leadership of California qualifies him to lead the country.
With that in mind, consider California’s problems rebuilding following the Palisades fire.
As the Wall Street Journal reported, “reminders are everywhere that public officials failed to prepare, failed to respond, and have spent much of the time since…failing to allow homeowners to rebuild.”
Even after the state government – with Newsom’s urging – took steps to cut regulations, the first home in the Palisades was just rebuilt.
The house cannot be occupied – it’s a show home – yet the fact that just one of the 6,837 structures to be destroyed has been rebuilt is hardly an endorsement of Newsom’s management skills.
Finally, Newsom’s full-throated defense of former President Biden during the 2024 campaign may come back to haunt him.
When concerns were growing louder over Biden’s competency, Newsom was one of his staunchest allies, setting up uncomfortable questions over whether Newsom lied to the American people or could not see what millions of voters clearly saw.
Ultimately, in spite of these vulnerabilities, Newsom must be considered Democrats’ most likely nominee. He has a larger national profile than virtually any other Democrat, and his ambitions have been obvious for years.
If he’s successful in the primary, he very well may win a general election if voters are desperate for change from a Trump administration that’s increasingly unpopular.
But make no mistake, a Gavin Newsom presidency is certainly not a foregone conclusion. Polished as he is, Newsom’s record will come back to bite. And, popular as he may be among Democrats, swing voters in purple states will decide the 2028 election – and they may be more hesitant to buy what he is selling.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.