One team, 10th-ranked Notre Dame, is 10-2, same as the other team, 12th-ranked Miami. They played four common opponents, with the Irish and the Hurricanes each blowing out all four. But these playoff hopefuls also played each other — way back in Week 1 — with the ’Canes scoring a 27-24 win at home.
Why, then, are they ranked behind the Irish?
Nobody really knows. Least of all the playoff committee, which has been as clear in its messaging as a tattered treasure map floating at sea.
Are the Irish going to end up getting bounced from the 12-team field in favor of Miami even though neither team is playing this weekend? Don’t doubt it could happen.
If you ask me, Notre Dame is the better team. The first game — essentially a statistical draw, with Miami winning the turnover battle 2-0 and kicking a late field goal to win — doesn’t have a whole lot to do with how things would turn out if there were a rematch. I’d be very confident in the Irish if they got another crack at the ’Canes. I’d also expect them to go further in the playoff.
But what if you asked the oddsmakers?
We asked two — one from Las Vegas and the other from an offshore outfit.
South Point casino’s sportsbook director, Chris Andrews, set a hypothetical rematch line with the Irish favored by 3.
“The talent level is equal,” Andrews said, “but Miami is too inconsistent and a huge coaching advantage [goes to] Notre Dame.”
BetOnline.ag sportsbook manager Adam Burns went with Irish -1½.
“That [first] game was in Miami and a long time ago,” Burns said. “On a neutral field, this is close to a 50/50 game, but I would lean Irish as a small favorite.”
Contributing: Rob Miech