The Detroit Tigers face their biggest moment of the year. After dropping Game 3 to the Seattle Mariners, they now trail the series 2-1 and must win at home to keep their season alive. Adding to the tension, a rain delay pushed back the first pitch, forcing both teams to adjust their routines and test their mental endurance before a single ball was thrown.
Game 4 at Comerica Park isn’t just another playoff matchup; it’s a test of poise, patience, and pride.
The Mariners come in favored at around -111 on most books, with Detroit sitting close behind at–108. The total is set at 8.5 runs–a number that suggests the oddsmakers expect tension, traffic, and a few big swings.
For the Tigers, this is the moment to prove they belong on October’s biggest stage. They’ll do it behind a pitcher with something to prove of his own.
From Omission to Opportunity
Just one year ago, Casey Mize watched the postseason from the sidelines. Injuries, inconsistency, and a crowded rotation led to his exclusion from the 2024 playoff roster–a move that stung for the former No. 1 overall pick who was once seen as the franchise’s cornerstone.
Now, twelve months later, Mize finds himself at the center of Detroit’s season. The Tigers’ playoff hopes literally rest on his right arm. After a 2025 campaign that showed renewed command and improved velocity, Mize has fought his way back into the spotlight. His 14-6 record and 3.87 ERA across 149 innings show durability and growth–the kind of stability the Tigers craved.
“I play to win. That’s what I care about the most,” Mize said. “I love to prepare and compete and hang out with these guys and travel and do all these things, but winning is what I like to do the most.
“So if there’s an opportunity to … save the season, that’s about as good as it gets for me, you know?”
Manager A.J. Hinch has made it clear that the club trusts Mize in this moment. “He’s earned this,” Hinch said earlier this week. “Casey’s been the same guy every fifth day, and that’s exactly what we need right now.”
What makes Mize’s redemption arc compelling is how it mirrors Detroit’s own journey: a team overlooked by many at the start of the season now fighting for legitimacy and survival. If Mize delivers, his story will become part of Tigers lore–from left off to leading on.
Mariners’ Counterpunch: Bryce Miller’s Pressure Start
Across the diamond, Seattle sends out Bryce Miller, a young arm with strikeout stuff but uneven execution. His 5.68 ERA during the regular season belies his potential–he can dominate in stretches, but often struggles with command when facing patient lineups.
Detroit’s hitters must pounce early. Forcing Miller into deep counts and traffic could expose Seattle’s middle relief. The Tigers’ right-handed core–Riley Greene, Javier Báez, Kerry Carpenter–must set the tone in the first three innings.
Betting Breakdown
The SportsLine simulation model projects around 8.6 total runs, leaning slightly toward the Over. With two inconsistent bullpens and starters under heavy stress, late-inning chaos is possible.
For bettors, Detroit offers slight value as a home underdog. The emotional edge of a must-win, Mize’s bounce-back narrative, and the Tigers’ strong home splits make them an attractive play.
Comerica Park has seen its share of heartbreak and heroics. Tonight, it may get another chapter in the latter category. Expect Detroit to ride Mize’s redemption story, balanced by small-ball execution and bullpen guts.
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