Contrary to last season, the Kansas City Chiefs are doing anything but stack wins. Coming off a 15-2 campaign that ended in a Super Bowl LIX defeat, the reigning AFC champions are just 5-5 through 10 games.
Not only does that put their AFC West title hopes on life support, but it makes reaching the postseason trickier. Kansas City has minimal margin for error, especially after an embarrassing 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11.
Will the Chiefs even get to the playoffs? One analyst doesn’t believe so.
Andrew Siciliano Declares Chiefs Will Miss Playoffs: ‘Burnt Ends’
In a recent episode of Yahoo Sports’ program “Inside Coverage,” Andrew Siciliano declared Kansas City’s season over with.
“The Chiefs are done,” Siciliano said. “Burnt ends. It is over. They are burnt, they are cooked, it is over. They are not going to make the postseason, they are 5-5. I do believe that. I don’t think they’re going to make the postseason. This isn’t some hot take…”
He went on to imply that a tumultuous 2025-26 campaign is due regression after some fortunate breaks in 2024-25.
“They’re not going to make the playoffs, OK?” Siciliano continued. “They’re 5-5. Their DVOA‘s great, but they’re losing all their one-score games. Last year, 10-0 in one-score games. This year, 0-5 in one-score games. Luck eventually comes back to the middle, and that is what it has done this year for the Kansas City Chiefs.
“While I do believe that Patrick Mahomes can’t be killed in the football sense, and that he will never be dead, and that he will rise from the grave. He is the guy that comes back and gets you. When there’s that four-minute, everyone-is-happy scene at the end of the movie where you’re going, ‘Wait a minute — did they really get him? Is it really over?’ And then he’s going to come back! But I don’t think that scene exists this year.”
It isn’t a totally uncommon take entering Week 12, but it’s a definitive one nonetheless. Siciliano isn’t buying what the Chiefs are selling thus far.
Assessing Kansas City’s Path to the Postseason
If that worst case does come true, it’ll mark the end of an illustrious stretch of dominance. The Chiefs have won the AFC West for nine straight seasons. Since quarterback Patrick Mahomes took over as starter back in 2018, their worst playoff outcome is making it to overtime of the AFC championship game. Kansas City has been the NFL’s most consistently successful franchise for a decade, essentially.
What’s their path to keeping that hope alive? It’s complicated. A combination of in-division and in-conference losses have head coach Andy Reid’s time on the wrong side of tiebreakers. That, paired with a mediocre record, puts them at ninth in the AFC standings coming into Week 12.
Despite that, projection models aren’t out on the Chiefs just yet. In ESPN’s Week 12 projections and odds, the team has a 55% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the AFC West. NFL has them with a 51% probability to play meaningful January football. FTN Fantasy lists them with a 51.8% chance of securing a wild card spot.
Everything starts with a Week 12 triumph over the Indianapolis Colts. Contests against intra-conference playoff hopefuls like the Houston Texans (Week 14), Los Angeles Chargers (Week 15) and Broncos (Week 17) also remain.
Should the Chiefs take care of business, they may not need too much help to get into the playoffs. If they’ve shown one thing this season, though, it’s that they can’t necessarily be counted on to do that.
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