There’s been plenty of discussion online and among the New York Mets fanbase about whether right fielder Juan Soto is living up to his contract in his first year in Queens.
Soto signed the largest contract in professional sports history this past winter at 15 years and $765 million. Naturally, expectations will be high when one player’s yearly salary is almost as much as one of the lower payroll teams in Major League Baseball.
The media’s biggest concern about Soto thus far in 2025 is his defensive abilities, or lack thereof, in the outfield, as well as his tendency not to hustle. However, it’s hard to deny he’s not one of the best hitters of the last 10 years, perhaps all-time.
Soto’s Numbers Tell a Different Story
Soto’s offensive numbers during his first 60 games in a New York Mets uniform are down compared to his usual level of production. ESPN’s David Schoenfield assessed Soto’s batting statistics against his expected batting statistics and evaluated why the former New York Yankee may have recieved some boos from the crowd at Citi Field earlier this month.
“The right fielder is hitting .233/.361/.438 with 11 home runs and 30 RBIs in 60 games, decent enough numbers if you were Jay Bruce or Marlon Byrd or Ryan Church, to name a few 21st-century Mets right fielders,” wrote Schoenfield. “But Soto isn’t getting paid to be decent, and while Mets fans had shown a lot of patience with him, he did finally start receiving a few boos.”
Schoenfield noted that Soto’s batting average, .233, is 66 points lower than his .299 expected average(xBA), as tracked by Statcastâthe 2019 World Series champions’ .438 slugging percentage is 152 points below his expected slugging percentage of .590, indicating he’s been unlucky when it comes to putting balls in play that are typically hits.
“His expected numbers look a lot more like his actual numbers from 2024 — but, of course, he’s getting paid to produce real results, not theoretical ones,” Schoenfield wrote.
Ample Time to Turn Things Around
Over 100 games are remaining on the New York Mets’ schedule, meaning Soto has plenty of opportunities to prove he’s worth $51 million a year. The 26-year-old has produced when he’s hit the ball on the ground, so his bad luck does not stem from an inability to lift the ball in the air.
“Is it possible the issue might be bad luck on grounders? Nope,” Schoenfield noted. “He’s hitting .366 on hard-hit grounders (95-plus mph) compared to .293 in 2024 (and .187 on all grounders compared to .199 in 2024).”
Despite Soto’s slow start to his Mets career, the Mets own the best record in the National League at 39-23, and are primed to be neck and neck with the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East division title throughout the year. However, Schoenfield believes Mets fans should consider that the $765 million contract Soto received is worth it.
“Look, we can debate the merits of the contract considering Soto’s lack of defensive and baserunning value. But the Mets aren’t paying him for those things, they’re paying him to hit — and he’ll be fine, even if it feels a little lazy to just call his start “bad luck.” He has hit a few extra grounders, a few extra balls to the left side instead of his pull side, and, yes, has had a few hits stolen from him,” Schoenfield wrote.
“Soto should put up big numbers the rest of the way, and, luckily, the Mets have played well despite his slow start. This could be a really scary lineup when he heats up.”
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