The Houston Astros missed the MLB playoffs for the first time since 2016 after a disappointing end of September, where both the final Wild Card and AL West division were within reach in the final week of the season.
Houston had made eight straight ALCS series until last season, when they were bounced in the playoffs by the Detroit Tigers. With an important offseason looking, and Framber Valdez potentially leaving via free agency, the outlook for the 2026 season is unclear.
General manager Dana Brown has said the roster will go under full assessment this winter, and wholesale changes may be made.
Houston Astros predicted to miss the 2026 playoffs
Although it’s very early to be making predictions of teams not playing in October in a full year from now, when you take into account that veterans like Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa may be past their primes, Yordan Alvarez’s injury problems are concerning, and Valdez departing the starting rotation, it might be an uphill climb for Houston next season.
In a recent predictions piece by Bleacher Report, the Astros fall into the “In Need of a Reset: Eyes on 2027” category of teams’ chances of making the playoffs next season after missing it this season.
Houston’s farm system is ranked 27th in baseball, but a slight reset would allow for the team’s youngsters, like Cam Smith, to develop further, and top prospects Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton to become big league-ready.
“The coming winter won’t make it any easier for Houston to keep its window open. Framber Valdez is a likely goner, and some injuries that otherwise left the rotation short-handed throughout 2025 will linger into 2026. Offensively, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are past their respective primes, and it isn’t getting easier to count on a healthy Yordan Alvarez.”
What Could Houston Do this Offseason to Improve the Roster?
This question all hinges on Framber Valdez, and the decision he makes once he hits the open market. Houston could attempt to re-sign him, but they also have another ace in Hunter Brown, who is also looking for an extension.
Houston got a few bad breaks down the stretch of the regular season when Josh Hader missed the last month with an injury, and Yordan Alvarez twisted his ankle right after coming off the IL.
Like any MLB club, they could use another depth starter, maybe two if they do lose Valdez in free agency. The Astros also need some outfield help. The front office thought Cam Smith was going to be an instant success in the bigs when he was traded in exchange for Kyle Tucker, but Smith had a bad slump in the middle part of the season.
As November and December roll around, there will be a better assessment of the top free agent outfielders, but Houston should certainly target one of them. It’s not uncommon in MLB for teams that have been so dominant in a specific league for almost a decade to come back down to earth, as sustained and consistent success is so hard in baseball.
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