Heading into Game 4 of the National League Division Series in Chicago, the Milwaukee Brewers made the move many expected: Freddy Peralta will take the mound. The decision underscores just how high the Brewers’ confidence is in Peralta’s ability to carry the team in must-win postseason moments.
Having already started and won Game 1 of the NLDS, the Brewers had a clear roadmap for Peralta to return on five days’ rest, thanks to the built-in off day between Games 1 and 2. With that scheduling in place, it became a logical, almost default, choice to slot Peralta into Game 4 rather than risk burning him later in the postseason.
Of course, relying on an ace in the postseason is rarely simple. The Brewers discussed delaying the public announcement while holding the option open for someone else to try and put away the Cubs in Game 4, thereby conserving Peralta for a potential Game 5 or the NLCS. But ultimately, they opted for the no-regrets path: go with their best.
Rest Patterns, Home vs Road & Why Peralta Matters
One of the factors working heavily in Peralta’s favor is his ability to thrive under managed rest patterns. The Brewers’ rotation usage this season leaned heavily into giving starters extra rest, a strategy that has become increasingly common across baseball. Breaking it down:
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On four days’ rest, Peralta made 17 starts, going 5-2 with a 2.59 ERA, and holding opponents to a .235/.317/.329 slash line.
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On five days’ rest, he was 10-2 with a 2.65 ERA, and the opponent slash dipped to .170/.257/.339.
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In the handful of starts on six-plus days, the results were mixed: 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and opponents’ slash around .165/.239/.266.
These numbers hint that Peralta is remarkably consistent across rest frames, but that extra day of rest tends to sharpen things, particularly when it comes to limiting base traffic.
Another big contrast: home dominance. At American Family Field, Peralta was nearly unhittable, posting a staggering 1.85 ERA and holding opponents to a .573 OPS across 18 starts. He matched a Brewers postseason record in Game 1 by fanning nine batters. Conversely, on the road he’s more mortal–8-5 with a 3.71 ERA and .649 OPS. In Chicago, the colder, more hitter-friendly environment combined with wind and ballpark quirks make this Game 4 start a notable test for Peralta.
It’s not just about rest or location though; the psychological weight of starting a clinch game matters. As reliever Brandon Woodruff put it after Game 1: “We need to win every game he starts … if he can drive the bus for us, it’s going to take us a long ways.”
Strategic Implications & What’s at Stake
If Peralta turns in another strong performance, the Brewers not only clinch the series, but can preserve their other arms for the NLCS. Because of the rest day before Game 1 of the next round, Peralta could still return on short rest for pivotal matchups, or even be deployed as a relief option if things go long.
On the flip side, the Cubs counter with Matthew Boyd in Game 4–a pitcher with his own postseason muscle. The matchup becomes both tactical and mental: can Peralta hold the Cubs in check, or will Chicago jump on him early and shift the pressure onto Milwaukee’s bullpen?
Moreover, by appointing Peralta early, the Brewers avoid forcing a mid-series scramble. If they had attempted to “save” him, they risked having to alter their plan based on game outcomes later in the series.
Analysts at CBS Sports are projecting a tight battle, favoring the Cubs slightly on the money line while expecting the “over 7 runs” to hit, with simulations narrowly tilting the final score to 4.5-4.3 in Milwaukee’s favor. Their model gives Chicago a 50 % chance of winning and sees the run line moving toward +1.5 for the Cubs.
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