The Denver Broncos can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 18, and the wild part is they might not even need to win to do it. Denver (13-3) hosts the Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) on Sunday afternoon, and a tie plus help could still lock up the conference’s lone first-round bye and home-field advantage.
The Broncos enter the final weekend at 13-3 and can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the conference’s lone first-round bye and home-field advantage depending on what happens in their Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET game vs the Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) on CBS, plus the New England Patriots (13-3) hosting the Miami Dolphins (7-9) at the same time window on FOX.
Key details to know:
- Broncos (13-3) vs Chargers (11-5): Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
- Patriots (13-3) vs Dolphins (7-9): Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
- Denver has multiple clinch paths, but the cleanest one is simple.
Broncos’ simplest path to the AFC’s No. 1 seed: handle business vs the Chargers
Denver’s most direct route is exactly what it sounds like: win and you’re done.
If the Broncos beat the Chargers, Denver clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed, locking in the bye week and guaranteeing the postseason runs through their home stadium. The Broncos already got a huge boost against the Chargers, after head coach Jim Harbaugh announced that star quarterback Justin Herbert would sit out against the Broncos.
That’s the pressure moment here: Denver has already positioned itself like a top seed, now it has a straight shot to finish the job against a playoff-bound opponent.
If Denver doesn’t win, the Broncos still have two more doors open
If the Broncos tie the Chargers, Denver can still clinch the No. 1 seed with help.
Here are the remaining clinch scenarios for Denver:
- Denver tie + New England loss or tie
- New England loss + Jacksonville Jaguars loss or tie
In other words, Denver still has a path even if Sunday gets weird, but it becomes a scoreboard-watching afternoon quickly. The Patriots result matters most, and in one scenario the Jaguars outcome comes into play, too.
The Patriots can still steal the top seed and their path is tied to Denver
New England’s route is narrower, but it’s real.
The Patriots clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
- New England win + Denver loss or tie, or
- New England tie + Denver loss
That’s why the late-window split-screen is going to feel intense: Denver’s outcome is the hinge point either way. A Broncos win ends the debate. Anything else keeps New England alive.
What the No. 1 seed would mean for the Broncos
This isn’t just a bragging-rights banner situation. The AFC’s top seed carries three tangible advantages that change the math of a playoff run:
- The lone first-round bye: one fewer game to reach the Super Bowl.
- Home-field advantage: every AFC playoff game would go through Denver.
- More time to heal: a week to manage injuries and reset the roster.
It also clarifies what happens next. If Denver clinches, the Broncos can spend next week preparing for a Divisional Round opponent rather than surviving Wild Card weekend.
And if they don’t clinch? That requires more work: the Broncos’ postseason road (and likely opponent timeline) shifts immediately based on where they land.
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This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
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