Broncos fans won’t see a playoff-clinching graphic on screen this week, but Sunday’s trip to Las Vegas can clinch something just as important. With a win over the Raiders, Denver would lock up a critical common-opponents tiebreaker over the Patriots that could decide who grabs the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
9News insider Mike Klis noted on X that a victory in Las Vegas would assure Denver (10-2) of winning any two-way tiebreakers with the Patriots (11-2) based on shared opponents, a group that includes the Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Raiders and New York Giants.
Why the Raiders Game Decides the Broncos-Patriots Tiebreaker
When two AFC teams do not play head-to-head, the NFL’s tiebreaker order moves from overall record to conference record and then to record against common opponents, as long as they share at least four games on the schedule.
The Broncos and Patriots check that box, with both facing the Raiders, Jets, Giants, Bengals and Titans this season. Because New England has already dropped a game to Las Vegas while Denver has a chance to beat the Raiders, Sunday’s result will swing that common-opponent column in a big way.
If the Broncos win in Las Vegas, they would guarantee finishing with the better record against those shared opponents, no matter what the Patriots do later against the Jets and Giants. In any end-of-season tie between the teams, that would give Denver the nod for the higher seed, including the AFC’s No. 1 spot if the current race holds and both teams keep piling up wins. Recent playoff-picture breakdowns already note that Denver’s edge over New England comes from this common-opponents category.
What the Patriots Tiebreaker Means for the Broncos’ Playoff Picture
Clinching this tiebreaker would not lock the Broncos into the postseason on its own; Denver still has to stack wins in a crowded AFC where teams such as the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills are all within striking distance.
Where it really matters is in the race for seeding. National playoff-picture pieces already list Denver and New England as two of the teams battling for the AFC’s top seed, with the Broncos holding the edge in many scenarios because of that stronger record against common opponents. If both teams end up with the same record, this clinched tiebreaker would make the difference between playing on Wild Card Weekend and enjoying a first-round bye and home-field advantage.
For Sean Payton’s team, that makes Sunday’s game a kind of hidden two-for-one. Beating a division rival keeps pressure on the rest of the conference, and it also removes one of the only realistic paths for the Patriots to leapfrog Denver in a late-season tie. For a franchise chasing its first deep playoff run since the Peyton Manning era, banking every possible edge over New England is a big deal.
Stats, Schedule & Context for the Broncos-Patriots Race
As of early December, national projections have the Broncos and Patriots separated only by tiebreakers at or near the top of the AFC, underscoring how thin the margin is for the conference’s No. 1 seed.
That makes the Raiders matchup one of those sneaky “swing” games that could decide where a potential AFC Championship Game is played months from now. Even without an official playoff-clinching scenario, the combination of a division opponent, a prime rivalry in the Patriots and a complicated tiebreaker grid gives this week a postseason feel for Denver.
With a win over the Raiders, the Broncos can quietly clinch a key tiebreaker over the Patriots that could decide AFC seeding and the race for the No. 1 seed.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Broncos-Raiders: How Win Could Clinch Patriots Tiebreaker, Shape AFC No. 1 Race appeared first on Heavy Sports.