The Boston Bruins are in the midst of a successful, resurgent season. The team has largely bounced back from a tough 2023-24 season, missing the playoffs after a prolonged postseason streak.
This season, despite the injuries, the Bruins have put together decent scoring, serviceable defensive play, and have gotten lights-out goaltending from Jeremy Swayman. Still, the people at MoneyPuck don’t seem convinced the Bruins have the wherewithal to make the playoffs.
According to the latest playoff probabilities from MoneyPuck, the Bruins have a 45.2% of making the postseason this year. That ranks a smidge behind the Edmonton Oilers, and nearly four points ahead of the Montreal Canadiens.
By the looks of it, the Bruins have roughly a 50/50 chance of making the postseason. But that situation doesn’t do the team justice. The Bruins have been good despite injuries and a lack of star power to support David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy.
The most pleasant surprise this season has been Morgan Geekie. His 20 goals in 27 games have powered Boston beyond expectations so far. Other players like Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt have been average, while Fraser Minten has been a nice addition this season.
When putting all those elements together, oddsmakers and probability calculators should be more bullish on the Bruins. Yet, their bearish turn (no pun intended) signals that there’s something in the probability algorithm that may not be quite so visible to the naked eye.
Bruins Defense Likely Holding the Club
There’s an interesting metric comparing the Bruins’ offense and defense. MoneyPuck shows Boston has an expected goals for rating of 51.72. Meanwhile, the club has an expected goals against rating of 62.29. That’s over a 10-goal differential (-10.57).
That’s no bueno, even if the raw numbers show the Bruins have a minus-3 goal differential on the ice. While that goal differential pales in comparison to other teams in the Atlantic Division like the Detroit Red Wings (-12) and the Buffalo Sabres (-10), the negative goal differential is not precisely encouraging.
So, that situation could be part of the reason why probability projections don’t really favor Boston’s chances of making the playoffs this season.
Boston Must Prove Its Staying Power
There’s another trend emerging this season. Teams in the Atlantic Division, like the Canadiens and Red Wings, started hot but have begun to fade over the last couple of weeks. The Red Wings are 4-4-2, while the Canadiens are 4-5-1.
As for the Bruins, they’re 5-5-0, which leads to a question: Does Boston, like other Atlantic Division teams, have the staying power to remain in contention for the entire season?
The short answer is, who knows? The long answer is, maybe. Injuries have decimated the Bruins this season. Meanwhile, scoring has dried up at times, leaving the team to rely on Swayman to steal games.
So, that shows a limited upside. There are only so many games Swayman can steal. The Bruins will eventually play unforgiving teams. That means Boston must find a way to boost scoring while maintaining a decent defensive game.
Thus far, the Bruins have shown they have the firepower to be in the playoff hunt. It’s all a matter now of staying in the race.
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