There is an 84 percent chance that Jayson Tatum will suit up for the Boston Celtics in the 2025-26 season, according to Polymarket Sports.
The probability of the six-time All-Star playing a game this season has actually increased just in the past week alone, as Tatum was given a 79% chance to return this season as of November 19.
Jayson Tatum Defying Logic
The predictions are astonishing, to say the least. Tatum, who is recovering from an Achilles tear, was widely expected to miss the entire 2025-26 season, which has been the norm for players dealing with the same injury in recent years. The likes of Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins missed at least a whole calendar year of action when they suffered their respective Achilles tears.
Also, with the Celtics enduring a gap year, it was previously believed that Tatum would be put in bubble wrap until the start of the 2026-27 season.
Tatum’s miraculously quick recovery has forced oddsmakers to rethink his return timeline. Last week, a video surfaced of Tatum showing his lateral ability by skipping from side to side, not to mention running up and down the court. Tatum was also seen dunking during another Celtics practice session last month.
Jayson Tatum Targeting March?
According to Owen Crisafulli of NESN, Tatum is attempting to return ahead of the playoffs, even though the Celtics plan to play it super safe with their franchise star.
“Tatum, for what it’s worth, is reportedly hoping to be able to play by either March or April this season,” Crisafulli reported this week. “That is a very aggressive recovery timeline, but with each passing day, he seems to be making more and more serious progress towards getting back on the court.”
Tatum has been traveling with the Celtics during his recovery, offering a leadership voice in the locker room, per his teammates.
“He’s been super active,” Brown saif of Tatum on Nov. 15, via Boston.com.
“He’s been around, it’s been dope to see. He’s been engaged and been on the majority of every flight, almost every film session. So that level of dedication, you can tell he’s eager to get back.”
Brown expressed his appreciation for Tatum for attacking his Achilles rehab, which he believes hasn’t happened with certain other players with long-term injuries.
“A lot of guys that know they got an extended amount of time, they’re going to separate themselves mentally for a little bit or whatever,” Brown said. “He’s been there. He’s been like an extra coach, in a sense. So it’s been kind of cool to see.”
Derrick White joked about Jayson Tatum being an annoying presence.
“He’s just annoying me,” White said of Tatum’s role. “No, obviously a great basketball mind. So just there, supporting us, telling us what he sees, encouraging us, just a bunch of other things throughout the game. So it’s always great to have something like that.”
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