External validation is always nice. And with the minor league season approaching its halfway point, the Cincinnati Reds have received a nice dose of it in the updated prospect rankings.
Yesterday, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com released his updated rankings of baseball’s best prospects. The list goes down to #50, and with 30 Major League Baseball franchises, simple mathematics suggests that each franchise should have an average of 1.7 players on the list.
The Reds, however, have four. Simple maths alone therefore provides a glowing endorsement on the state of their farm system. And in the case of the highest-ranked player of the four, it seems two top pitching prospects are near-enough ready to go.
Petty Among Game’s Best Pitching Prospects
Ranking twelfth in ESPN’s rankings is a player who has already had a taste of big league action with the Reds, albeit a sour one.
Right-handed pitcher Chase Petty has started two games this season at the major league level as a fill-in, and while they went nothing less than extremely badly, the fact that he received them in the first place shows that he is top of the prospect pile, and on the verge of breaking through.
Petty, a 22-year-old hard-throwing right hander, has fared better in the minors. With the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate, the Louisville Bats, Petty has started six games with the Bats, and across 29 innings has posted a 2.79 Earned Run Average. He has recorded 35 strikeouts to 12 walks, and limited opponents to a mere .194 batting average.
The Reds’ first-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Petty features a fastball between 96 and 100 miles per hour, and a particularly highly-rated slidepiece. The third pitch, the change-up, is not yet at the calibre of the other two, yet Petty’s two primary pitches generally come with very solid command, so long as his two games in the majors so far are discounted.
Reds Have Strength In Depth
The other three Reds prospects on the list all featured in the 41-50 range.
At #43 on the list is catcher, Alfredo Duno. Ranked as the tenth-best prospect in the Reds system in the winter of 2023, Duno has moved up the rankings by virtue of his excellent offensive production at a position where offensive production is always hard to find. Playing A-ball at only 19 years of age, Duno has recorded a .777 OPS in 36 games with the Daytona Tortugas so far this season, demonstrating an excellent eye at the place
Having signed as a 17-year-old for a giant $3.1 million signing bonus, rated by MLB.com as the fourth-best player signed during the 2023 international signing period, the Reds have earmarked Duno for big things for a long time. His path to the majors will take at least two more years, as he has yet to show the power potential suggested by his frame while continuing to learn the defensive nuances of the catching position. Yet as a catcher with power, plate presence and some speed on the bases, he represents a rare type of prospect, and the early returns are encouraging.
Two Reds Arms On The Fringes Of The Majors
At #48 is Rhett Lowder, a 23-year-old righty who thoroughly impressed in six big league starts late last season. Lowder recorded a 1.17 ERA in 30.2 innings pitched, and while his expected ERA of 4.34 speaks to the degree of luck he experienced in that short span, a 4.34 ERA would still be a very solid return for a young starter making his forays into the majors.
With two fastballs, a breaking ball and a change-up in his arsenal, all of which he commands within the zone, Lowder – the Reds’ first-round pick in 2023 – is on the fast track to the bigs. His 2025 season so far has been one of injury, with one aborted start at the AAA level followed by rehab in the low minors, but when healthy, Lowder should feature on the big league club later this season.
Finally, another Chase makes the cut. Having been amazingly lucky and won the second pick in the 2024 MLB Draft Lottery, right-hander Chase Burns was drafted out of Wake Forest, and is already at the Double-A level with the Chattanooga Lookouts. In five games there, Burns has recorded a 3-1 record, a 1.88 ERA and a standout 35:3 strikeout-to-walk rotation, with a high-90s fastball that is too hot for hitters at that level to handle.
MLB.com ranks the Reds’ farm system as baseball’s eleventh-strongest overall, and it seems much of that pitching depth is about ready to break through. Following in the footsteps of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott before them, the Lowder, Burns and Petty trio will soon be ready for regular major league innings. This will weaken the prospect rankings, but it will only improve the franchise overall, reassured in the knowledge that their scouting of upperclassman college pitchers is working excellently.
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