The Indianapolis Colts rolled through the first half of the season looking like one of the true contenders in the AFC.
Now, there is a real chance they’ll be absent from the postseason entirely.
Five games remain, and one of the most dangerous remaining stretches of any team in the NFL comes to the forefront.
On Monday, the Athletic’s Mike Jones labeled what awaits Indianapolis as a “dream-killing fizzle.”
The Colts are staring down a brutal stretch that will define their season. They have lost three of their last four games. Daniel Jones (fractured fibula) plays through physical limitations. And the schedule offers no mercy.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Seattle Seahawks (9-3)
San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
Jacksonville again.
Houston Texans (7-5)
That is the season.
Colts’ Schedule Now Tests Daniel Jones Directly
What really matters here are the three AFC South games. Two matchups with the Jaguars and one with the Texans will decide whether Indianapolis stays relevant or fades quietly out of the AFC race. Jones’ health sits at the center of all of it.
The offense may have to find a new gear. It no longer can control games with pace and pressure. The offense that once overwhelmed opponents now labors for answers.
Through the first eight weeks, Indianapolis led the NFL in scoring at 33.8 points/game, per Stephen Holder of the Indy Star. Since Week 9, that number has fallen to 21.8, which ranks 18th.
The Colts ranked first in total EPA through eight weeks. Since then, they sit below zero at minus-0.96. That swing tells the story of an offense that no longer dictates terms. Third downs reveal the same collapse. Indianapolis converted 45.3 percent early in the year. Since Week 9, that rate has slipped to 32.7 percent, near the bottom of the league.
AFC South Presents A Dramatic Finale
Following a 20-16 win on Sunday, Houston already has one win over the Colts, and now gets another crack on the last day of the regular season. The Jaguars could jump ahead of the division with a victory in Week 14. The Seahawks then host with one of the most aggressive defensive fronts in the conference, followed by a promising 49ers team coming to town on Monday Night Football (three days before Christmas).
These games will not slow down for anyone.
The moment Sauce Gardner went down on the Colts’ second defensive snap in Week 13, the entire structure of the Colts’ defense shifted. Gardner suffered a right calf injury, did not return, and spent the rest of the afternoon on the sideline in street clothes and a walking boot.
Without him for at least the Jacksonville and Seattle games, safeties cannot disguise, blitzes lose protection, and young corners face isolation against Trevor Lawrence twice, C.J. Stroud again, Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy. The Colts now defend December without their eraser at full strength.
The dangerous part for the Colts is not just about the difficulty of the opponents. It is the timing. The offense hit its peak when the schedule offered breathers. It now enters the league’s most unforgiving window while searching for rhythm.
The early months built a cushion. The final month removes it.
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