England’s dream and worst-case scenarios ahead of 2026 World Cup draw

There are just six months to go until a first ball is kicked at the 2026 World Cup and the sense of anticipation is building for what will be the biggest tournament in the competition’s storied 96-year history.

For the first time ever, a total of 48 nations are set to lock horns in pursuit of the coveted prize, an expansion from 32 teams, a decision which has drawn some criticism and skepticism from fans and pundits alike.

But there was no trace of any pessimism in the stands at Hampden Park on Tuesday night as Scotland secured passage for the first time since 1998 with a pulsating 4-2 victory over Denmark in an all-time classic Group C qualifier.

A pair of stunning late strikes from Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean ensured Steve Clarke’s men will be placed in Pot 3, with the Tartan Army sure to cross the Atlantic in their droves.

The United States, Mexico and Canada, next summer’s host nations, are all, of course, automatically guaranteed a spot in Pot 1 ahead of the draw, which will be held on December 5 at Washington DC’s Kennedy Center at 17:00 GMT (12:00 local time).

They are joined in Pot 1 by, among others, reigning champions Argentina, Spain and England, who sailed through qualifying with a 100 per cent record from eight games, scoring 22 goals without conceding once under Thomas Tuchel’s stewardship.

But the qualification process still has plenty of excitement in store, with six play-off spots up for grabs. Here, there are two routes to next year’s finals, one for UEFA (four places) and one for the other four confederations (two places).

Four-time winners Italy are among those in the mix ahead of March’s play-offs, as well as the Republic of Ireland and home-nation hopefuls Wales and Northern Ireland.

The first group-stage contest of the 23rd edition of the tournament will take place four months later on June 11 in Mexico City.

And on July 19, the eyes of the world will be on New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium for the final, bringing the curtain down on 104 games across 39 days of action-packed drama.

How exactly do the World Cup seedings work?

Ahead of next month’s eagerly anticipated draw, the 48 competing teams will be split into four pots of 12 nations and each group will have one team drawn from each pot.

Pot 1 contains all three host nations, the United States, Mexico and Canada, plus the nine top countries – those that have qualified – in the FIFA world rankings.

The next-highest ranked teams will find themselves in Pots 2, 3 and 4, while the six play-off winners are set to be placed into Pot 4.

It’s important to note that no more than two UEFA nations can be placed in the same group. Outside of UEFA, no two teams from the same confederation can be grouped together.

Projected 2026 World Cup draw pots

England’s dream and worst-case scenarios

It will be 60 years of misery and hurt for England by the time the finals come around, with the Three Lions’ lack of success at World Cups stretching way back to Sir Geoff Hurst’s hat-trick heroics against West Germany in 1966.

But a flawless qualifying campaign undoubtedly makes England one of the most feared teams in the draw, alongside the likes of Spain, France, Brazil and current holders Argentina.

The FA appointed Tuchel with the clear remit to triumph at next year’s tournament and the German’s side will be expected to progress through to the knockout phase, irrespective of the group they find themselves in.

There are a number of tricky scenarios and permutations that Harry Kane and Co could be faced with, though, with star-studded squads, serial winners and potential dark horses scattered throughout the draw.

As mentioned, England can only be drawn with one other UEFA-qualified nation in their group. Based on FIFA rankings alone, this makes Croatia (ranked 11) the least favourable UEFA opponent for the Three Lions.

However, many of England’s long-suffering fans will be already looking at Pot 3 and, specifically, Norway, with some trepidation given the side’s outstanding showing in Group I.

Stale Solbakken’s side, boasting two genuine Premier League stars in Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, won eight from eight in qualifying, scoring 37 and shipping only five goals in the process.

Remarkably, Manchester City’s Haaland racked up 16 goals in his eight appearances in UEFA qualifying – double the tally managed by his closest rivals Memphis Depay, Marko Arnautovic and Kane (all eight).

A quick glance at Pot 4 and there is one nation that jumps out, namely Italy. Gli Azzurri – winners in 1934, 1938, 1982 and 2006 – are forced to qualify via the play-offs, though, having finished second in their group behind Norway.

New Caledonia are the lowest ranked team (150) that could still qualify for the finals, but they must still come through a play-off semi-final and final to make World Cup history.

Should they succeed, the South Pacific nation, with a population roughly the size of Derby, would become the lowest ranked country ever to compete at a World Cup.

World Cup schedule

What Tuchel said after England’s final qualifier

England’s squad have a four-month wait before they are reunited again, by which point Tuchel may hope to have a clearer idea of his favoured squad and starting XI.

‘It hurts me honestly, I told the players, I have to say “Merry Christmas” and “Happy New Year” now,’ the England boss said after his side’s 2-0 defeat of Albania to wrap up a perfect qualifying campaign on Sunday.

‘I cannot believe it and in my heart, everything in me wants to be with you guys on Wednesday again on the sidelines and fight and Saturday again and they sucked me into all of this. This is just amazing. It will be very very tough for me to not have a match until March.

‘They have been outstanding. The level of detail cannot always be right. But the commitment to accept mistakes, the commitment after ball losses… to put the head down, to just run; run it off.

‘This has been outstanding through the last camps and I think you can feel it. This is what I talked about and I hope that somehow we make it so that you watch this team and you feel like, ‘Wow. They really mean it!”‘

He added: ‘It is a privilege to work with these players because I love their character and their attitude and how they are shaped so this I knew and today I could say everything played out perfectly because from the first camp, I could feel the energy.

‘Then we had a little dip in summer but then the way we reacted and built from there in the three camps was just outstanding so it is a privilege every day so full credit to the players for their commitment and it makes me of course very happy and very proud.’

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