Many NFL offenses will look different this season, and the New York Jets are no different. With Aaron Rodgers being swapped out for Justin Fields at quarterback, offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand should lean on the running game more than the club has in seasons past.
That projects to be good news for star Breece Hall, but someone else in the backfield is getting buzz. In a story for Pro Football Focus, Nathan Jahnke singled out Braelon Allen as someone who may be in line for a second-year breakout in 2025. Focusing on fantasy football specifically, Jahnke believes Allen could outperform his average draft position.
Short-Yardage Performance Earned Braelon Allen Healthy Grade for Jets
The last handful of games in the 2024-25 season saw Hall slow down in terms of involvement. Not only did he miss Week 14’s outing against the Miami Dolphins, but he averaged 62% of offensive snaps played in active contests from Weeks 13-18. Allen’s average snap percentage rose just 2% (26 to 28) from Weeks 1-11 to the latter stretch, but he was afforded more premium opportunities to showcase his talent.
Excellence in short yardage, specifically, is what allowed Allen to stand out.
“Allen averaged a low 3.6 yards per carry, but he graded well thanks to his excellent play in short-yardage situations,” Jahnke wrote. “Allen ran the ball 16 times when the Jets needed two yards or less for a first down, and he converted 14 of them. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry on those runs, while the league average was 3.2. His 90.0 rushing grade on those runs was the best among running backs.”
The cherry on top is how advanced analytics reflected Allen’s rookie campaign as a whole. Among all running backs with as many rushing attempts as him a season ago (47 players), his 82.0 run grade ranked 14th. His 73.6 overall offense grade from PFF ranked 23rd.
Precedent Exists for Allen to Assume Defined Role in Jets’ Offense
There’s also critical context to consider here. Today, having more of a one-two punch and less of a bell cow-style setup in the backfield is accepted. It’s a staple of the modern NFL. Look no further than the Detroit Lions for an example. Jahmyr Gibbs gets heaps of praise, but he’s complemented perfectly by David Montgomery. Together, they form an elite duo.
As Jahnke points out, Engstrand just so happens to be coming from that very Detroit squad. If a similar tandem strategy is utilized, Allen could reap the benefits of being a setup man for Hall.
“The running back in this role has finished in the top 20 in fantasy points per game each of the last three seasons,” Jahnke wrote. “A few things need to go right in order for Allen to reach that top-20 range. Engstrand needs to use the same running back rotation, and Fields can’t be used as the runner in short-yardage situations.”
As you can tell, plenty has to work in Allen’s favor in order for him to break out. His coaching staff need to put him in good positions to succeed. Fields can’t be a carry vulture in short-yardage situations. The offensive line play mustn’t fall off even a bit. Perhaps most importantly, though, Allen himself needs to continue developing.
If most or all of that occurs, the fantasy football world could be looking at a tremendous value draft pick.
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