We knew that the Florida Panthers were up against it merely attempting to win a third-straight Cup, or even getting to a fourth-straight Final. There’s a reason no one’s done either in 45 years, in a vastly different league, where any team of reasonable quality only had to remain somewhat upright to get to the playoffs and even win a round. 16 of 21 teams made the playoffs back then, for god’s sake.
The task only got tougher when, on top of the news that Matthew Tkachuk would miss the first couple months of the season, Aleksander Barkov’s knee got gremlin’d and he would miss at least the whole regular season, if not the playoffs along with it. That’s two-thirds of the Panthers’ top line out, for what is a vital part of the season. October and November get mocked by plenty, buried as it is beneath the MLB playoffs and NFL season. However, the first two months of the season is when teams just about lock in their playoff positioning for the rest of the season, and certainly cement themselves as playoff contenders or not. It’s kind of a musical chairs-like scramble for the opening eight weeks, and the Panthers were going without their two best forwards for it.
It only piled up more during the week when it was announced that Dmitry Kulikov will be out for five months after shoulder surgery. Kulikov can’t really be dismissed as just a third-pairing defenseman, given that the Panthers raison d’etre is having a mobile blue-liner on the ice at all times who can support their furious forecheck. Without Kulikov, that’s 10-15 minutes per game that they won’t.
We can start to see the effects of all this the past two games, both losses, and both were the first road games for the defending champs. In Philadelphia, the Flyers were able to concentrate all their match-up advantages by sticking Sean Couturier–one of the more annoying checking centers for anyone to deal with, and has driven a fair few to insanity–on Sam Bennett all night. Detroit last night was able to match up Dylan Larkin and their top-pairing of Seider and Chiarot against Bennett’s line. In the two games, Bennett and his linemates have just produced one power play goal.
Further down the lineup, the Panthers third-pairing has gotten clubbed the past two games. Uvis Balinskis and Jeff Petry have rocked Corsi ratings and expected goal percentages in the 20s and 30s. Against the Wings, Balinskis’s xG% was 7%. It’s not like the Flyers or Wings were specifically targeting that pairing either, mostly sending out their third and fourth line against them. This is not something the Panthers are used to seeing, not when Kulikov was driving the back of the firetruck.
It’s only two games, though it’ll be a tough test for the Panthers tonight as they have to turn right around and get up to speed on the 4×400 that the New Jersey Devils usually turn games into. 3-2-0 is hardly the worst place to be for Florida, tied on points at the top of the Atlantic with Detroit. But these could be early cracks in what was once an impenetrable fortress the past two and a half seasons. There are points opponents are looking to get at.
Heavy lies the head and all that. Especially when so much of that head is bandaged.
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