The biggest matchup of college football Week 6 belongs to a pair of in state rivals. The 18th ranked Florida State Seminoles will host the 3rd ranked Miami Hurricanes in a top-25 clash in Tallahassee.
The Seminoles are coming off an unranked loss in Blacksburg, Virginia, while the Canes had a bye week to prepare to keep their undefeated season alive on the road.
Line: Miami -4.5
Money line: Miami (-190), Florida State (+160)
Over/Under: 53.5 (O -115, U -105)
Despite the higher ranked team coming off two weeks of preparation, here’s why I’m buying the Seminoles to win outright.
Florida State +160 On The Money Line
Why give out a slice when we can go for the whole cake? I think the Seminoles are the better football team here. Not only do I like +4.5 against the spread, I think the Noles win this one out right.
First and foremost, axe out the bye week handicap. Miami head coach Mario Cristobal is 2-4 both straight up and against the spread following a bye week.
Next, we have to talk about UVA. That was a college football loss. Double overtime, a once in a life time performance from Cavaliers‘ quarterback Chandler Morris, Friday night in Blacksburg in front of a sold out crowd, it happens.
Looking forward to Saturday, Doak Campbell Stadium has already proven that it is a living breathing entity when the Noles beat the Crimson Tide by 14 as double digit home underdogs in Week 1.
Now the Seminoles will welcome in another ranked team. As it turns out, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, the home team is 204-100 straight up. Additionally, they are 178-118-8 against the spread.
In layman’s terms, nearly two thirds of the time, the home team wins a ranked matchup.
Add this with the fact that Gus Malzahn’s run game has been the best in the nation this year, and that quarterback Thomas Castellanos is a proven big game baller, I think Miami is in a real tough spot.
Finally, this is Miami’s first round game of the season. How that happened is beyond me, but Tallahassee is going to be an ugly wake up call for a team that’s yet to play in a hostile environment.
Give me the Seminoles to pull off the upset.
Same Game Parlay +659 Odds
Florida State Money Line (+160)
Tommy Castellanos ATTD (+130)
Duce Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (-113)
If I’ve talked you into Florida State money line, here are a few things that have to happen to get there.
First, Thomas Castellanos has to play well. When Castellanos is on, he is running the rock. He’s completed just 45 passes on the season, connecting on just nine against Alabama in the Week 1 win. But one thing that he has constantly done is run the football.
He’s found the end zone four times this season on the ground alone, including once in each of his team’s two biggest games. I think his rushing yards are live, but I like him to score with better odds.
Then there is Duce. Robinson has caught one third of all passes thrown by FSU. The six-foot-six USC transfer has 346 yards and three touchdowns through four weeks. He is the first read on all RPO’s and he is the big play guy in this receiving room. I expect him to get involved early and continue off a nine catch, 147 yard game against UVA.
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