The Buffalo Bills are on upset watch tonight on Sunday Night Football as they take on the surging New England Patriots fresh off of a 30 point home victory. The reigning AFC East champs will look to silence any and all conference discussions with an emphatic showing in the final Pats Bills matchup in Highmark Stadium.
The Bills have the advantage in the offense vs defense matchup and are 7.5 point favorites.
Here’s the players we are expecting to step up in prime time.
See our Patriots plays here.
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+240 FD)
This is a downright misprice for Dalton Kincaid who has scored in three of the Bills four games this season. This line is playable against any competition, factor in that the Patriots are dead last in the NFL in red zone pass defense, this becomes a smash play for Kincaid.
Kincaid leads the team in red zone target share, seeing a third of all passes inside the 20 coming his way.
The Pats let two no-name tight ends from Carolina score last week, I like the odds that Buffalo is able to scheme Dalton open tonight.
Josh Allen o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-138 FD)
Josh Allen is the ultimate prime time performer, as he showed us in a four touchdown effort against the Baltimore Ravens Week 1. I think his anytime touchdown is playable, but I think he does it the traditional way tonight. The Pats have surrendered this line in two of their games this season.
The only quarterbacks who went under it were Geno Smith and Bryce Young. Josh Allen is not Geno Smith and Bryce Young…
I expect Josh to have all day to throw and make the Pats pay for it at home. This price makes it great to place in a parlay but I believe it is playable as is.
Khalil Shakir o3.5 Receptions (-154 FD)
Hey quick question, why is this line so low? In every game that wasn’t a blowout, Khalil Shakir has dwarfed this line. He had six catches Week 1, and five last week. In a home prime time shoot out, Shakir is still Allen’s favorite target.
On top of that, the Patriots have struggled against slot receivers so far. Tyreek Hill went for 100 yards, Jaylen Waddle pulled in five catches, Calvin Austin had three grabs. With Christian Gonzalez covering Keon Coleman, I expect Shakir to get a lot of work near the line of scrimmage.
He is also a weapon against zone coverage which Sharp Analysis says the Patriots run 63.6 percent of the time.
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