The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the 2025-26 season with varying expectations. Die-hard fans hope the team can march its way toward a long playoff run, potentially reaching the Stanley Cup.
Others are less optimistic. Less enthusiastic followers believe the loss of Mitch Marner could be too much to overcome.
But there’s an interesting projection that signals the Maple Leafs could be headed for another first-round playoff exit in 2026.
According to Tankathon, the Maple Leafs are scheduled to land the 24th overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. Of course, the pick does not belong to Toronto. It was shipped to the Boston Bruins in the Brandon Carlo trade last spring.
Regardless of who owns the pick, the interesting point here is the placement of it. Landing 24th signals the Maple Leafs could be the best of the first-round losers.
That’s no bueno for Maple Leafs fans. Last season, the Los Angeles Kings landed the 24th overall pick, one that they traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Leafs had the 25th pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, which went to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Of course, Tankathon doesn’t have a crystal ball or access to a parallel dimension. Tankathon’s numbers are a product of an algorithm that takes into account previous performances, records, and prior draft picks.
But it’s interesting to consider that the Maple Leafs could face yet another first-round exit in 2026.
Another Maple Leafs 1st-Round Exit Could Set off Firestorm
Another first-round exit by the Maple Leafs in 2026 could set off a firestorm of epic proportions. Fans and the media will surely explode at the team’s futility. Although it shouldn’t be a surprise. The Leafs have made sensible additions this offseason, but none of them promise to elevate the Leafs to Stanley Cup contender status.
Yes, there’s a possibility that Craig Berube could be the mastermind who takes a roster more to his liking to another level. But being realistic, the Leafs did not upgrade over top rivals like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers.
Moreover, the Maple Leafs have questions regarding scoring, defensive depth, and goaltending. If one of those areas falls apart, it could be a challenging season for Toronto. A lot of things will need to go right for the Leafs to have a real shot at making headway in the postseason.
Leafs Could Remain Stuck in Limbo following this Season
The Toronto Maple Leafs risk landing in limbo following this season. The club will be too good to miss the playoffs. But it won’t be good enough to win a Stanley Cup. That reality has been the norm over the last six or seven seasons.
Since the 2021 bubble playoffs, the Maple Leafs have no longer been a team on the rise. They were an established club that had its best opportunity to win a Stanley Cup then. Instead, the Leafs blew a 3-1 lead to the Montreal Canadiens. Since then, it’s been an impasse for the Leafs.
Unless Auston Matthews and William Nylander find another level, it will be tough for the Maple Leafs to truly emerge as a serious contender. The supporting cast will also need to have career seasons in order to potentially push Toronto over the proverbial hump.
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