It’s simple math.
The Athletic’s latest projections for Toronto’s roster paint a sobering picture: only Matthew Knies and William Nylander are projected to reach new career highs in goals this season. Everyone else falls short of their past bests, many of them by quite a bit.
For a Toronto Maple Leafs team trying to convince fans that they can climb higher in 2025–26, that’s a problem. If the offense is trending backward on paper, how exactly are the Leafs supposed to move forward in reality?
That disconnect helps to explain why Bleacher Report slapped Toronto with a D grade for its offseason — a mark that feels less like nitpicking and more like a warning flare.
Maple Leafs Given D Grade Due to Lack of Moves that Improved Team’s Chacnes
Toronto’s one seismic move this summer was shipping Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights. It wasn’t just a blockbuster; it was the kind of deal that reshapes an entire franchise’s identity. Marner wanted the chance to reset his career out west, and Vegas offered him that stage. For the Leafs, the return may help in the long run, but there’s no world where subtracting a 90-point playmaker makes the immediate path easier.
Marner’s departure puts enormous pressure on Nylander, Knies, and of course, Auston Matthews to carry the scoring burden. The trouble is, those projections suggest no one else is ready to surge forward. That leaves Toronto staring down the possibility of having less offensive firepower than a year ago, without having adequately replaced it.
Beyond the Marner deal, this summer was supposed to be about clearing room and recalibrating the lineup. David Kämpf, Calle Järnkrok, and Nick Robertson were all names dangled in trade chatter, but not one of them moved. The longer they stay, the more it feels like a team boxed in by its own market value.
Had they found a taker, Toronto could have created space to bring in a heavier, playoff-ready piece. Instead, the same middle-of-the-lineup puzzle remains unsolved, and the same questions linger about whether this group has the variety needed to outlast Florida, Carolina, or Tampa Bay in a seven-game war.
Toronto’s other glaring offseason critique? A lack of physical edge. With Ryan Reaves gone, the Leafs no longer have a traditional enforcer. While Brad Treliving may be betting on a “toughness by committee” approach, some reports suggest a growing sense that the Leafs aren’t built to withstand the grind.
Even head coach Craig Berube has hinted at the need for more bite, warning early in camp that “this group has to be harder to play against.” For a man hired to deliver accountability, that’s not just a talking point — it’s a marching order.
Toronto Failed to Adequately Rebound From Loss of Mitch Marner
When Bleacher Report handed out offseason grades, Toronto’s D wasn’t about one bad transaction; it was about the sum of its parts.
Trade chatter fizzled. The lineup got lighter with Marner’s exit. The scoring projections show regression. And the club didn’t add the kind of size or nastiness that has historically mattered most in April and May.
This isn’t to say the Leafs are doomed. Matthews remains one of the game’s premier scorers, Nylander is coming off his best year, and Knies is viewed as a budding breakout star. But the supporting cast looks eerily familiar, and the margin for error feels thinner than ever.
Toronto’s fanbase has heard all the promises before. Change is coming. Lessons have been learned. This time will be different. And yet here they are, entering 2025–26 with a thinner lineup on paper, a roster still light on heavy bodies, and a grade that screams mediocrity from one of the sport’s largest media outlets.
It’s simple math, and right now the Leafs’ numbers don’t add up. Unless someone unexpected surges, or management finds a way to flip those movable pieces for meaningful help, Toronto risks proving that this offseason wasn’t just disappointing — it may have been costly.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Maple Leafs Lose Numbers Game After Offseason Missteps appeared first on Heavy Sports.