This year in the American League, there have been two players who stand out above the rest.
New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge and Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh are the frontrunners to win the AL Most Valuable Player Award at season’s end, and for good reason.
As of Monday, Judge leads MLB in 10 offensive statistical categories, and Raleigh is having the best first-half season of any catcher in league history. Will Raleigh’s performance be enough to edge out Judge for MVP? Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly doesn’t think so.
Yankees’ Aaron Judge Predicted to Win AL MVP
The New York Yankees are still struggling to win games, but Judge’s offensive production has barely slowed down this season.
Judge’s ability to hit for both power and average makes him one of the most deadly hitters in MLB this season and in previous years. The right fielder’s batting average still hovered near .400, close to the end of May.
“Even with as great as Raleigh has been in the first half, though, Judge still leads baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, hits, total bases, and WAR,” Kelly wrote on Friday.
“The New York Yankees star is not far behind Raleigh in terms of home runs, and he has the benefit of playing his home games at Yankee Stadium. There’s even a strong argument to be made that Judge would be the AL MVP of the first half, even with how great Raleigh has been.”
Judge has 33 home runs in 2025, but Kelly’s assessment of him performing better at Yankee Stadium than at T-Mobile Park may not be foolproof. Judge’s expected home runs by park on Baseball Savant indicate that to this point of the season, he’d have 31 homers at Yankee Stadium and 32 at T-Mobile Park.
Why Cal Raleigh Won’t Win MVP
After hitting a career-high 34 home runs in 153 games last season, Raleigh already has 35 before this season’s All-Star break.
“For the 28-year-old to be doing it as a catcher who plays his home games at T-Mobile Park makes it that much more impressive,” Kelly wrote.
“But the fact that Raleigh plays such a demanding defensive position and doesn’t have the advantage of hitting in a bandbox makes it hard to imagine him continuing to perform at this clip.”
Kelly predicts that Raleigh’s offensive outburst will slow down during the second half of the season.
“That’s not to say he [Raleigh] won’t finish with one of the best offensive seasons a catcher has ever had, but he’s only been off once this year. That will either have to change in the second half, or the Mariners run the risk of him wearing down in August and September.”
Raleigh homered twice in Friday’s 6-0 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. His 35th dinger tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the most in Mariners history before the All-Star break.
Down to the Wire for AL MVP
While both Judge and Raleigh have their sights set on the ultimate goal of winning a World Series, the race for this year’s AL MVP may come down to the final weeks of the season.
Especially if the two All-Stars maintain an absurd level of offensive production.
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