Big time players make big time plays in big time games. The Kansas City Chiefs are traveling to Duuuval to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium tonight on Monday Night Football.
I expect the Jaguars to keep it close as 3.5 point home underdogs coming off back to back wins and advancing to 3-1 in what has become a very competitive AFC South. But they will have their work cut out for them as they take on Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and a Chiefs team stacked full of future Hall of Famers trying to get their season back on track.
We’ve put together a +3000 same game parlay to cash in on this prime time matchup.
+3097 Same Game Parlay
Death, taxes, and quarterback rushing props on prime time games. The logic is simple, when the lights are the brightest bet on the quarterbacks and coaching staff to scheme up the biggest play makers on the team. That’s why tonight, for the most part, we roll with the receptions, not the yards on the team’s biggest receiving threats.
Trevor Lawrence 15+ Rushing Yards
Patrick Mahomes o21.5 Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce 4+ Receptions
Tavis Hunter o2.5 Receptions
Brenton Strange o3.5 Receptions
Tyquan Thornton o14.5 Receiving Yards
Last night we hit on three of our five player props (not including anytime touchdown plays), and gave out the New England Patriots to win outright over the Buffalo Bills.
Let’s keep the prime time ball rolling in what is sure to be a fun one.
Also, if you’d rather play them straight, my two very favorite props here are T-Law to run for 15 yards which I put six units on at +120 and Brenton Strange to haul in four passes.
The Reasoning Behind The Prop Plays
My handicapping is simple for the quarterbacks. They run on prime time, end of story. In games where every snap feels important, the gunslingers are more likely to pull it down and scramble than they are to throw the ball away. Additionally, Mahomes has hit this line in each of the first two games, and Lawrence has busted off runs of 10+ yards twice this season.
Brenton Strange is the Jags leading receiver and has pulled down six catches in each of the last two games. This line feels like a missprice on him. Where as Kelce has cemented himself as the security blanked on this offense, clearing his four catch line in three straight.
I’m backing Travis Hunter in his first career prime time game. The Chiefs don’t have the best defense against the slot, Hunter has hit this in three of four, and with an extra day to prepare I think he has a lot of first target looks.
Lastly, Tyquan Thornton. Thornton dwarfed this line in each of the first three games, and finished just three yards under it last week. Xavier Worthy is back but dealing with ankle swelling as he recovers from the shoulder injury. This is a one catch play for a guy who has the third most receiving yards on the team after the first month.
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