Prime time is for long shots. We make our money playing straights on the weekend so we can splurge on Monday night. Boy do we have a good one as the Kansas City Chiefs are traveling down to Duuuval to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
It has been a tale of two seasons for these two competitors. The Chiefs are off to a disappointing 2-2 start after dropping the first two games of the season. The Jaguars, conversely, came out firing in the first month of the Ethan Coen era. They are 3-1 under their new head coach and searching for a statement win over a team chalk full of Hall of Famers.
Here’s our favorite seven plays that turn 10 dollars into 550.
+5493 Same Game Parlay
Death, taxes, and quarterback rushing props on prime time games. Last night we saw Josh Allen run for 59. Last Sunday it was Jordan Love running for 20+ and then Monday night saw Justin Fields nearly record 100 yards on the ground. Our parlay starts with the two quarterbacks to pass their number, with Trevor Lawrence teased up from 12.5 to 15.
Trevor Lawrence 15+ Rushing Yards
Patrick Mahomes o21.5 Rushing Yards
Next we are backing the tight ends. Brenton Strange leads the entire team in receiving yards and Travis Kelce has cemented himself as the security blanket for Patrick.
Travis Kelce 4+ Receptions
Brenton Strange o3.5 Receptions
Then we’ve got two receivers to hit their number. First, Travis Hunter in his first ever prime time game to catch just three passes. Then we like Tyquan Thornton to hit his number with reports that Xavier Worthy is dealing with ankle swelling and still recovering from the shoulder injury.
Tavis Hunter o2.5 Receptions
Tyquan Thornton o14.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, we like the outlet pass against a heavy pressure defense. KC loves to blitz, we are looking to Travis Etienne to haul in a pair of passes.
Travis Etienne o1.5 Receptions
More Reasoning Behind The Prop Plays
Mahomes hit this line in both of the games to start the season. Factor in that the last two have been blowout wins and you understand why he wasn’t stressing about his ground gains. T-Law on the other hand hasn’t cleared this yet. The fact that the number is even this high proves that Vegas is expecting the usual prime time bump for the fifth-year quarterback.
The Chiefs don’t have the best defense against the slot, Travis Hunter has hit this line in three of four, and with an extra day to prepare I think he has a lot of first target looks. Tyquan Thornton dwarfed this line in each of the first three games, and finished just three yards under it last week. This is a one catch play for a guy who has the third most receiving yards on the team after the first month.
Lastly, Travis Etienne. I’m backing Etienne tonight as more of a fade of Kansas City. I was looking through the game logs, every single running back Kansas City has played has recorded at least two catches. Even Derrick Henry hit this line in the blowout last week. On top of that, three of the four teams had MULTIPLE running backs record more than two catches against them.
Clearly the amount that Steve Spagnoula likes to blitz leads to the quarterbacks finding their backfield outlet. With Etienne recording more than a 60% snap share, I feel confident he finds two.
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