While their biggest need remains to be a corner to push Dee Alford and A.J. Terrell, the new-look Falcons pass rush will play a key role in avoiding a “bumpy ride” in 2025.
This morning, Bleacher Report’s Alex Ballentine detailed each team’s best- and worst-case scenarios on defense. After their defense was ranked No. 28 following the NFL Draft, Ballentine stressed the need for the Falcons to find the pass-rushing success that has eluded them for years.
Rookies Walker and Pearce Jr. Thrive Alongside Veteran Leonard Floyd in Best-Case Scenario
When the Falcons traded back into the 1st round, there was no question they’d grab edge rusher James Pearce Jr.
As ESPN NFL Draft Analyst Matt Miller wrote in the immediate aftermath of the pick, “Pearce was heavily connected to the Falcons in the pre-draft process.”
So, it makes sense that they spent draft capital to get a “high upside pass rusher with elite speed.” That’s especially true, considering he fits well within Raheem Morris’ scheme.
The Falcons had already selected inside linebacker/edge rusher Jalon Walker with the No. 15 pick. Their hope is that the University of Georgia product “will bring a speed element to Atlanta that has long been missing,” wrote Miller.
Even before their investment at the position during the draft, the Falcons brought in a veteran pass rusher. Atlanta signed veteran defensive end Leonard Floyd to a 1-year, $10 million deal back in March. If Floyd can put together another productive season, Atlanta’s pass rush should “raise its floor,” writes Ballentine.
“The best-case scenario for the Falcons would see both Walker and Pearce step into roles right away while Floyd puts together another productive season,” writes Ballentine. “That would help the team drastically improve on its 31 sacks last season.”
Worst-Case Scenario Sees Falcons Pass Rush Struggle, Secondary ‘Collapse’
While Floyd could ‘raise the floor’ of the Falcons pass rush, PFF’s Mason Cameron wasn’t a fan of the move. Cameron chose the veteran’s 1-year, $10 million deal as his least-favorite move that they made during free agency.
“Atlanta was understandably limited by its cap situation, but considering some of the other mid-level deals for pass rushers, these figures for Floyd are steep,” wrote Cameron. “Although Floyd has enjoyed solid sack production — double-digit sacks in four of the past five seasons — he is coming off the lowest pass-rush win rate of his career (8.8%), a sign of likely regression.”
Ballentine notes that scouts have described both Walker and Pearce as ‘all-or-nothing’ prospects, limiting their floors. With “boom-or-bust” volatility, the Falcons pass rush takes longer than anticipated to “figure things out.” If that happens, that will put even more pressure on a secondary with “questions of its own.”
Josh Kendall of The Athletic agreed that there is lingering uncertainty surrounding the Falcons pass rush. Atlanta is the only team with fewer than 300 sacks over the past 10 years. So, as Kendall notes, “they are putting a lot of faith in getting more pressure on the quarterback.”
After finishing 31st in the league with just 31 sacks last season, the Falcons “are counting on one of those players, or some combination of all three, boosting what is historically one of the league’s worst pass rushes,” writes Kendall.
CBS Analyst Predicts Falcons in for ‘Bumpy Ride’ in 2025
The Falcons went all-in on finding a pass rusher this offseason, but they have lingering questions at several key positions. Their addition of defensive lineman Morgan Fox may not have been the splash move that fans were hoping for, though.
Following the draft, Ballentine wrote about each team’s top needs, praising the Falcons’ aggressive pursuit of a top-level edge rusher. While he recognized their “promising young” defensive linemen, their signing of Morgan Fox “wasn’t enough to completely fortify the unit.”
While the Falcons have young pieces in place, Danny Kanell of CBS Sports isn’t fully sold yet. Kanell has predicted that Atlanta could be in for “a little bit of a bumpy ride” in 2025. He thinks the Falcons will finish the season at 7-10, with a “best-case scenario at 9-8.”
Despite back-to-back seasons with the league’s easiest schedule, the Falcons have finished an underwhelming 7-10 and 8-9, respectively. While Kanell likes the direction Atlanta is heading in, he doesn’t see this being the year the Falcons return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
Atlanta’s early-season schedule features 3 playoff teams (vs. Tampa Bay, at Minnesota, vs. Washington) in their first 4 games, as well as a divisional matchup against the Panthers in Charlotte. So, we will figure out right away if the Falcons pass rush will be able to impact winning, and if they will be true contenders to dethrone the Buccaneers as NFC South champs.
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