The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the active MLB teams early in the hot stove season. Just a few days ago, Baltimore traded Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels in return for slugger Taylor Ward. That move showed that Mike Elias may be willing to go all-in this offseason with hopes of returning to the playoffs.
However, that means the Orioles will have to make a splash or two in the free agent market for starting pitching. A recent rotation prediction features one big difference in Baltimore’s rotation, and it’s Boston Red Sox free agent starter, Lucas Giolito.
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New Orioles’ Rotation Prediction
In a recent article by Bleacher Report, writer Joel Reuter predicts all 30 MLB teams’ Opening Day starting rotation for 2026, and the Orioles are predicted to poach one of the Red Sox free agent starters in Lucas Giolito.
“Full seasons from Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish will go a long way after they made a combined 24 starts, so one quality veteran arm to slot somewhere in the No. 2/3 range in their rotation might be all they need. Lucas Giolito reestablished himself as that caliber of starter after a strong campaign in Boston.”
Getty(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Lucas Giolito is slotted in the third rotation spot behind Rogers and Bradish, but he certainly has No.2 option upside when healthy. In 145 innings in 2025, Giolito posted a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts. However, he missed all of 2024 due to injury, and missed September and October this season as well.
Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells round out the projected rotation for the Orioles, but the one thing that is certain about this prediction is that Baltimore needs to add starting pitching this offseason.
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Assessing Lucas Giolito’s Free Agent Market
Now that Lucas Giolito is a free agent, he’s free game for any team to sign. While this recent prediction may have some Red Sox fans upset that he’s departing Boston for a division rival, it’s unclear if Boston is really going to make a push to sign him. They might have their sights on a different, better target.
Giolito did not receive a qualifying offer, and considering his injury history, it’s also hard to believe that a team will sign him to a long-term extension beyond two years.
However, a deal for two years, $30 million seems to be a good evaluation for the 31-year-old starter. His market value is $20 million, according to Spotrac.Â
Either way, signing Lucas Giolito would be a step in the right direction for this Orioles’ front office, which is trying to make amends from last offseason, where no notable moves were made.
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