The Indiana Pacers are coming off a game-seven loss in the NBA Finals. It was their first trip back to the Finals in 25 years, but they had to play game seven shorthanded. Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles tendon in the first quarter, and he will now miss the entirety of the upcoming season.
Losing Haliburton is a big loss for Indiana. The two-time All-Star averaged 18.6 points and 9.2 assists per game last year. He is a true playmaker, and the Pacers are going to have trouble replicating his numbers on the court. Last season, Indiana finished 4-5 when Haliburton did not play, but they did win four of their last five games without him.
There are going to be 82 Haliburton-less games this year, and Indiana is going to have to find a way to win without his contributions. The good news is the reigning Eastern Conference champions are still expected to make the playoffs.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN does his own stat-based projections for each team every year. This year, according to his projections, the Pacers are expected to finish fourth in the Eastern Conference with a projected win total of 45.9.
How Do the Pacers Replace Haliburton?
GettyIndiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard standing with the ball at half court in the NBA Finals.
There is not an easy way to replace the production Haliburton brings to the court every night. He is always a threat to finish with 10+ assists, but he can drop 20+ points on any given night, as well. In fact, Indiana was 25-3 last season in games Haliburton scored at least 20 points.
There are ways for the Pacers to make up for the loss of their star player, though. In the October 13th preseason loss against the San Antonio Spurs, Andrew Nembhard dished out eight assists. He was also able to score 11 points, but the assists are what matter. The Pacers will need a point guard to facilitate the offense, and with Nembhard’s increased role in the starting five, he has to be that guy.
Nembhard played 65 games last year and started all of them. He finished with a career-high in points (10.0), assists (5.0), and steals (1.2) per game. The former second-round pick out of Gonzaga seems ready to make a leap forward — this could be the year he does it.
The Pacers Could Still Be a Top Scoring Team in the NBA
GettyBenedict Mathurin reacting for the Indiana Pacers in a preseason game against the San Antonio Spurs.
Indiana has finished in the top 10 in points per game each of the last three seasons. Haliburton was a huge reason for that. The Pacers’ identity is to push the pace and create open shots. Last year, Indiana finished seventh in pace of play and second in assists-to-turnover ratio. Keeping that style of play is going to be important, even in Haliburton’s absence.
The team, of course, still has Pascal Siakam. Siakam was an All-Star last year as he finished the season with 20.2 points per game on 51.9 percent shooting. He also grabbed 6.9 rebounds per game. The offense should run through Siakam this season, but there is one other player teams need to be aware of.
Benedict Mathurin played in 72 games last season and started 49 of them. The 2022 sixth overall pick averaged 16.1 points per game, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. He is clearly not much of a passing guard, but he can be an elite scorer at times. He scored 25+ points eight times last year, including three games scoring at least 30.
In the October 13th preseason game against the Spurs, Mathurin had a night to remember. He made 11 of his 12 shots, all four of his threes, and dropped 31 points in the loss.
Is Mathurin going to shoot that well all year long? Not even close. However, watching the guard take control the way he did should be an encouraging sign for Rick Carlisle and the Pacers. If he can take a step forward in his offensive game, there is no reason why Indiana should miss the playoffs this season.
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