Now officially past Christmas and closing in on the calendar flipping to 2026, rumors are ramping up around MLB. That said, there’s been a ton of rumors around the Boston Red Sox. Between Brayan Bello being casually shopped to being linked to infield free agents, there’s no shortage of storylines surrounding the Red Sox. Moreover, one name that has been floated this offseason and the past two seasons, in retrospect, is outfielder Jarren Duran.
Duran, over the course of the 2025 season, heading to the trade deadline, was rumored to be traded. However, in the end, he was not and finished the season with the Rex Sox. As we draw closer to 2026, those rumors have ramped up once again. There have been discussions surrounding the 28-year-old being part of trade packages to the San Diego Padres, the Kansas City Royals, and other teams in recent weeks.
Jarren Duran in Rumor Circulations
The latest mock trade surrounding Duran is from the Play Tessie Podcast, suggesting a move between the Red Sox and Padres. The deal is a 1-for-1 where the Red Sox acquire reliever Mason Miller, with Duran going to Southern California. Compared to how the Padres got the reliever, they traded SS Leo De Vries, RHPs Braden Nett, Henry Baez, and Eduarniel Nunez for Miller and LHP JP Sears. If the Padres even considered moving Miller, it would have to be more than a 1-for-1, after moving on from four Top-15 prospects in their system.
Duran has even been linked to the Royals, where, per Ken Rosenthal, there was an impression that they would have to trade Cole Ragans for the outfielder. There appears to be a debate about what the “asking price” could be for Duran, and it seems to be for a front-of-the-rotation starter. Jeff Passan confirmed on Dec. 25 that the notion of this being the ask is true, and it will be hard for teams to pull the trigger on a 1-for-1.
In reality, keeping Duran in Boston makes more sense for the Red Sox than trading him away. Despite the logjam the Red Sox have in the outfield between Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, keeping Duran would benefit the Red Sox more than trading him. His versatility and skill set are what the Red Sox need in 2026.
Red Sox Need to Keep JD
GettyBoston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran
During the 2025 season, Duran was a 4.7 wins above replacement (WAR) player after hitting .256 with 16 home runs, 84 RBIs, an American League-leading 13 triples, and 41 doubles. He finished with a slashline of .332/.442/.774 and an OPS+ of 114. While that is a tad lower than his 8.7 WAR season in 2024, along with an MLB-leading 48 doubles and 14 triples, 2025 was still a solid season for Duran.
Between 2024 and 2025, Duran had a 13.3 WAR in 317 games played. If you add 197 runs, 350 hits, 89 doubles, 27 triples, 37 home runs, 159 RBIs, 58 stolen bases, and a .271 average, why would a team trade that away? Duran’s slashline over those two years is .337/.468/.805 with an OPS+ of 124. When dissecting those numbers, teams would keep that kind of player and not trade them away.
When dissecting Duran’s Baseball Savant page, the arm strength, arm value, spring speed, and batting metrics showcase that he is capable of being a valuable asset in 2026. His batting run value is in the 77th percentile, while baserunning run value is in the 98th percentile. That plays into his sprint speed being in the 91st percentile, showcasing why he racks up aton of doubles and triples every year. Defensively, his arm value reaches the 93rd pecentile and his arm strength is at the 71st.
Duran has the speed, fielding ability, and hitting capabilities that, even with a logjam in the outfield, the Red Sox could manage to keep him in 2026. Red Sox’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has stated that they want Rafaela to get time in centerfield next season. However, when at the Winter Meetings, Breslow, reported by Boston Globe’s Tim Healy, stated, “We have to listen because it would be, I think, irresponsible not to. But the bar we’re going to hold is really high, because each of those guys is capable of contributing multiple wins to our team.”
If the Red Sox view Duran as someone who can contribute to the team winning games, especially on offense and defense, then keeping him is the move. Furthermore, if someone gets hurt, due to the marathon of a 162-game season, having Duran helps the depth. The Red Sox have control of Duran for another three seasons, with them paying him $7.7 million in 2026 to avoid arbitration. Moving him only weakens the outfield depth.
In-House Options
The only option the Red Sox have in-house to use in their four-outfielder rotation is Nate Eaton. There could be a case for Nick Sogard, but he’s more often looked at as a utility infielder. Regarding Eaton, he played in 41 games in 2025 for the Red Sox, finishing with a .296 average, four doubles, one home run, and four RBIs. He had a slashline of .348/.383/.731 and an OPS+ of 104, along with a 0.1 WAR.
Eaton is the same age as Duran, but the question is, could he be a solid fourth outfielder that can help the Red Sox in 2026 and beyond? The most games he has played were 44 in 2022 with the Royals. If Duran is traded away, the outfield depth dips.
Another possible option could be Kristian Campbell, as he’s been taking reps in the outfield at the Puerto Rican Winter League. However, there is no indication of where he will start in 2026, and if he will see playing time in Boston.
All in all, while the Red Sox are doing their due diligence to make the team better, moving Duran is one where keeping him is a better option. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Duran and the Red Sox heading into Spring Training in a couple of months.
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