Red Sox Tabbed to Trade Jarren Duran, Top 2 Prospects For Top-10 WAR Ace

After getting to the postseason for the first time in four years and seemingly with an opportunity to make a much deeper playoff run in 2026 with a few roster upgrades, the Boston Red Sox have kept a surprisingly low profile this offseason. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has swung a couple of deals, acquiring starting pitchers Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

But not much else has happened.

That could change in a hurry if a massive trade proposal by a leading Red Sox podcast host were to come to fruition. Heading into the offseason, Breslow said he wanted to acquire a No. 2 starter to follow ace Garrett Crochet in the rotation. Whether Gray or Oviedo fits that bill is debatable at best.

The new trade idea from Nat Gordon of Play Tessie, a popular podcast affiliated with the Red Sox flagship radio station WEEI in Boston, would definitely fill the No. 2 starter vacancy — but at a high price to the Red Sox.

Red Sox Bring in Elite Arm in Proposed Deal

Labeling the trade “Two Aces, Three Teams,” Gordon proposes trading the outfielder who has been the most talked-about potential Red Sox trade piece — Jarren Duran. In the Play Tessie scenario, Duran goes to the Kansas City Royals, a team that according to longtime baseball insider Ken Rosenthal has set its sights on acquiring the five-year veteran.

The Royals would send back their ace, albeit one who missed most of June, July and August with a rotator cuff strain. That pitcher is 28-year-old right-hander Cole Ragans, a 2016 Texas Rangers first-round draft pick who was traded by the Rangers to Kansas City in 2023 in exchange for closer Aroldis Chapman — who is now the Red Sox closer.

3-Team Trade Gets Complicated

But the trade is far from that simple. Gordon’s proposal also involves the Washington Nationals, who would send their own southpaw ace Mackenzie Gore to the Royals.

The Nationals, in return, get Boston’s top two prospects, as rated by MLB Pipeline: 20-year-old Double-A shortstop Franklin Arias and 6-foot-6, 250-pound fireballing lefty Payton Tolle.

Ragans Elite in Important Metric

“This was my easiest no ever, honestly,” wrote Gordon’s co-host Pat Brown, nixing his colleague’s idea. “I like Ragans a lot, NOT at that price.”

But Ragans, despite a 3.66 career ERA and a 4.67 mark in 2025, rates as elite in some important metrics. In 2024, his last fully healthy season, Ragans ranked ninth among all pitchers in wins above replacement (WAR) and second among American League pitchers with a 5.0 total.

“You look at his last year, and you say why would the Red Sox trade all this for him?” Gordon said on the podcast. “Well, he had a 2.67 expected ERA. He was in the 100th percentile in strikeout percentage, the 95th percentile for whiff rate.”

But those are not even Gordon’s “favorite” Ragans statistics.

“What brings starting pitchers consistent success?” the podcast host asked. “It’s can you generate swing and miss and can you do it in the (strike) zone? … If you take all starting pitchers last year, a year in which Cole Ragans’ surface numbers were not very good. But if you look last year at starting pitchers who topped 50 innings pitched, who was No. 1 in percentage of swing and miss in the zone? It was Cole Ragans.”

Indeed, Gordon is correct. According to Statcast, Ragans in 2025 recorded a 28.2 percent swing-and-miss-in-zone rate, best among all starting pitchers.

In 2024, Ragans compiled a 24.3 percent swing-and-miss-in-zone rate, third behind only lefties Garrett Crochet, then still with the Chicago White Sox (25.5 percent), and Detroit Tigers ace and Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, whose rate was an even 25 percent.

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