While the focus of the upcoming MLB offseason for the Red Sox should be on ways to improve what was a good and promising group that is still shy of true contention, the team does face the same issue that all teams face at this time of year: How much of the band should we be keeping together?
The Red Sox want to bring Alex Bregman back but with news that he is opting out and hitting free agency, that’s up int he air. They are also awaiting the decision from shortstop Trevor Story on what he might do with his ability to opt out of the final three years of his contract, though the feeling is that he is likely to stay put.
But there’s even less clarity on one guy whose 2025 was all over the map: starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, who is likely to exercise his mutual option with the team. Once that happens, the Red Sox will need to decide whether to gamble on a $22 million qualifying offer for Giolito.
Red Sox Could Give Lucas Giolito the Qualifying Offer
The dilemma is this: Offer Giolito the QO, and he could accept it and force his way back onto the roster at $22 million. That’s risky given the fact that Giolito has now had two major elbow operations in his career and couldn’t get his arm through the 2025 season healthy.
Or, offer him the QO, and see if he signs elsewhere on a longer-term deal next year, as the team did with Nick Pivetta at this time last year. Players who have the QO attached to them but leave anyway net the team losing the player a draft pick. Pivetta brought Boston a third-rounder. Because they’re over the tax threshold, a Giolito pick would land after the fourth round.
Red Sox Would Be Giving a ‘Modest Raise’ if QO Is Accepted
But for veteran Red Sox beat man Sean McAdam of MassLive, there isn’t much of a decision. The assumption, though, is that Giolito is healthy.
“I would give him the qualifying offer,” McAdam said on “The Fenway Rundown” podcast. “It’s a modest raise over what he was making last year. When he was healthy, which is to say from the end of April to the very end of September, he was a very good No. 2 or No. 3 starter, I think he can be that again.
“There are certainly physical questions that make them pause, but they know from the examination he had in the first week of the postseason that there was nothing structurally wrong with the elbow, there was some inflammation.”
Lucas Giolito Was 10-4 Last Season
Giolito was 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA last year, and if the worst thing that happens out of offering him the $22 million QO is that he signs it and comes back for a year, that’s not a bad thing. Remember, Pivetta was 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA for the Padres this year–if he had signed the QO, that would have worked out a lot better than the Walker Buehler one-year signing, which was essentially for the $21 million qualifying offer.
Buehler was 7-7 with a 5.49 ERA before he was released by the Red Sox.
Pitching is at a premium, and after a season in which Boston burned through 15 starters over the course of the year, Giolito has value.
“To me, I don’t think this is much of a decision at all. You just saw how difficult it is to have sufficient pitching depth throughout the year. They ran out of pitching in September,” McAdam said.
“If you went to go sign somebody with his resume for a single year, you’d come pretty close to giving him $22 million. You’re protecting yourself that if he goes elsewhere, you get a pick out of it. If he accepts it, is it a little overpriced, is it a little bit of a risk? Yes. Guess what? All pitching is a little overpriced and a little risky.”
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