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Roman Anthony Red Sox Surge Could Complicate Contract Situation

For Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony, his short time in MLB can be split into two distinct timelines. First, there was the adjustment period, which was notably rough and had many fans wondering whether this was truly the guy who had been rated baseball’s No. 1 prospect for more than a year. After 15 games, Anthony was hitting .114, with a .291 on-base percentage and a .227 slugging mark.

But in Game No. 16, a mostly miserable 9-0 loss to Toronto on June 27, Anthony got a hit, and went 1-for-3 on the day. Things opened up after that.

In his last 15 games, Anthony is hitting .373, with a .439 OBP and a .525 slugging mark. He has hits in 13 of the last 14 games he has started, and something that did not seem credible even two weeks ago is now a possibility: Roman Anthony could be the American League Rookie of the Year, or at least a Top 2 finisher.

Despite just 31 big-league games, half of which were terrible, Anthony already ranks No. 11 among rookies in WAR. The Red Sox have an outfield crunch, but he is expected to play consistently in the second half of the season, and if he can keep swinging the way he has been swinging, his stock is only going to rise.


Roman Anthony No. 4 in ROY Odds

In fact, at both MGM and ESPN Bet, Anthony is rated the No. 4 choice among bettors for the A.L.’s Rookie of the Year Award. It will not be easy to crack the Top 2, where the Astros’ Cam Smith (No. 1 at ESPN) and the Athletics’ Jacob Wilson (No. 1 at MGM) are currently perched.

Nick Kurtz of the A’s is generally the No. 3 candidate. But Anthony is No. 4 with a bullet, and climbing into the Top 2 would be a financial boon for Anthony, and a bit of a hardship for the Red Sox.

That’s because, even though Anthony was only called up last month, finishing first or second in the Rookie of the Year voting would give him an automatic year of service time. That would give the Red Sox one less year of team control over Anthony.


Red Sox Would Lose Service Time Edge

At MassLive, Chris Smith pointed this out in a list of storylines to watch for the second half in Boston.

He noted: “A top two Rookie of the Year finish is not out of the question for Anthony with a big second half that results in a playoff berth for Boston. Anthony already has better odds than Red Sox rookie catcher Carlos Narváez (+3500).

“This is a big storyline because of the service time factor.

“The top two finishers are rewarded with a full year of service time. Anthony, therefore, would hit free agency a year earlier if he finishes first or second.”

Anthony is under team control for six seasons, and will hit arbitration after the third year, with the possibility of becoming a free agent six years down the road–beginning with 2026, because 2025 won’t count in his service time. Anthony would not be a free agent until 2031.

But if he finishes in the Top 2 in ROY voting, 2025 will count and he is eligible to become a free agent as soon as 2030.

 

 

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