Friday night in Seattle is more than just another playoff game; it’s Game 5 of the American League Division Series, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners enter this matchup deadlocked at 2-2 in a best-of-five showdown, meaning that one team’s postseason ends and the other advances to the ALCS.
For the Mariners, it’s also about breaking a long drought. They haven’t been back to the ALCS since their historic 116-win 2001 season–a 24-year gap that now looms large. Detroit, meanwhile, hasn’t seen the ALCS since 2013. The tension is palpable, and both clubs will be throwing everything they’ve got at this decisive contest.
How We Got Here: Series Recap
The series has been a tug-of-war from the start. The two teams split the first pair of games at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, then split Games 3 and 4 in Detroit at Comerica Park.
In Game 1, Detroit edged Seattle 3-2 in 11 innings, as Zach McKinstry delivered a dramatic go-ahead single in extras. Seattle’s bullpen kept Detroit off the board for five frames prior to that deciding hit. Game 2 flipped roles: Seattle won 3-2, with Jorge Polanco going deep twice off Tarik Skubal and the Mariners’ bullpen preserving a narrow edge.
Game 3 was more comfortable: Seattle won 8-4, thanks to homers by Eugenio Suárez, J.P. Crawford, and Cal Raleigh. Though Detroit plated three in the ninth, the lead was never under serious threat. Game 4 saw Detroit respond in emphatic fashion, scoring nine unanswered runs to take it 9-3 and force a winner-take-all Game 5.
Pitching Plans & Bullpen Strategy
For Detroit, the plan is simple: lean on Skubal for as long as possible. He’s been stellar in this postseason, striking out 14 in 7 2/3 innings in his Wild Card start and punching out nine in seven innings in Game 2 of the ALDS. The Tigers will let Skubal go until he can’t, then rely on a bullpen chain: lefty Tyler Holton (especially versus lefty hitters), Kyle Finnegan, and closer Will Vest. Tommy Kahnle serves as the next trusted option, with others only stepping in if things unravel.
The Mariners will counter by sending George Kirby to the mound, bypassing Luis Castillo despite his strong showing in prior games. The decision reflects workload concerns–Castillo threw 85 pitches in Game 2 and walked four–while Kirby was solid in Game 1 (two runs in five innings). Seattle’s bullpen is relatively fresh: Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash had rest thanks to the blowout in Game 4. Gabe Speier, though, has been heavily used, and righty Eduard Bazardo has logged four of the past five days.
Seattle would love for Kirby to chew up six innings, then hand it off to Speier (if favorable), Brash, and Muñoz in the late frames. Bazardo might be tapped for a specific matchup, but only if absolutely needed. There’s also a speculative thought: could Castillo, on normal rest, be used in relief? Though he’s never done so in the majors, the magnitude of the game gives room for creative thinking.
Matchups & Ballpark Effects to Watch
One of the most anticipated duels is Polanco vs. Skubal. In Game 2, Polanco took Skubal deep twice though Polanco has otherwise been largely quiet (0-for-12 outside of those homers). For Skubal, the key is simply not to leave mistakes over the plate.
Another matchup of interest: Kerry Carpenter against Seattle’s lefty relievers. In Game 1, Carpenter blasted a two-run home run against Kirby, and Seattle has since leaned on Speier when Carpenter’s in the box. Speier has been effective limiting lefties (.179 batting average allowed during the regular season). Given that, it’s all but certain Speier will get a crack at Carpenter in a pivotal spot in Game 5.
The venue itself may exert as much influence as any pitcher. T-Mobile Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in MLB; it suppresses offense to about 91% of league average. That works in Seattle’s favor, especially in a tight game where one run or two could decide things. Meanwhile, Comerica Park in Detroit is more neutral and hitter-friendly by comparison. Paradoxically, that may explain why the contest sees fewer runs when in Seattle.
Odds, Picks & Betting Angles
According to DraftKings, Detroit is priced at about -128 on the moneyline, while Seattle is the underdog at +108. Some lines elsewhere put Detroit at -120 and Seattle in the neighborhood of +100.
CBS Sports’ betting column lists “Mariners +118” as their preferred moneyline play, arguing that the value is in taking the home underdog. Meanwhile, they also offer a prop: Raleigh to record a hit at -125, banking on his hot streak in the playoffs.
Another exotic option floated: “Tie game through five innings” at +325, a play that reflects expectations that both starters will be dominant early and runs may be scarce.
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