The Toronto Maple Leafs have likely bid adieu to longtime star Mitch Marner. The prevailing thought is that Marner will depart this offseason, per Andy Strickland.
That situation means the Maple Leafs will have a hole to fill in their top six. Assuming that Matthew Knies returns next season (Knies is an RFA this summer), Knies will suit up alongside team captain Auston Matthews.
But it’s the right side that will need someone to fill Marner’s shoes, so the Maple Leafs must pursue free agent winger Nikolaj Ehlers.
Ehlers is coming off a seven-year, $42 million contract with the Winnipeg Jets. He had a solid season this year, scoring 24 goals and 63 points in the 69 games for the Jets. While those totals may pale in comparison to Marner’s 102-point season this year, Ehlers is the sort of speedy winger Matthews and Knies need.
Ehlers, the ninth-overall pick from 2014, could instantly elevate his game by playing alongside an all-world center like Matthews while benefiting from the exposure that comes from playing in Toronto.
How Much Would It Cost Toronto Maple Leafs to Sign Nikolaj Ehlers?
That’s a tricky question. Ehlers is coming off a deal that paid him $6 million AAV. That’s not too bad for the production he’s put up every year throughout his career. But one has to think that Ehlers’ next contract would include a pay bump.
So, would that pay bump be $7 or $8 million?
According to The Athletic projections, Ehlers is estimated to get a six-year deal worth $8.1 million.
But in a June 16 mailbag story, The Athletic’s James Mirtle wrote that Ehlers is “going to command upward of $9 million.”
That number seems fair considering mid-tier and top-tier players are getting in the league, nowadays.
That assumption could bring a potential contract for Ehlers to six years, $8.5 million. While the Leafs would probably like to ink Ehlers to a shorter-term deal, pushing the contract to six or even seven years is a way to bring the AAV down.
If the Leafs can agree to terms with Ehlers on a six-year, $54 million deal, they should pull the trigger. The team will get a consistent goal-scorer with speed, skill, and consistency.
Potential Issues Toronto Maple Leafs Must Consider Regarding Ehlers
Ehlers has been durable and consistent throughout his career. Except for an injury-filled 2022-23 season, Ehlers has been steady as they come.
But he is 29. A six-year deal would take Ehlers to roughly 35. So, there may be questions surrounding his ability to remain a reliable, productive player by then.
Mirtle, of The Athletic, also has doubts.
“I can’t see him being a fit with the style the coach and GM want this team to play, especially not at that [salary],” he wrote. “And I doubt he would have success here.”
Could injuries and overall wear and tear catch up to Ehlers?
It’s a possibility.
Like all NHLers, Ehlers could gradually break down, especially toward the end of his next contract.
There’s also the possibility of Ehlers failing to live up to the hype in Toronto. That’s something that free agents consider before signing with the Maple Leafs. The heightened media scrutiny could make it less appealing to join a team like the Leafs.
All told, the Maple Leafs would do well to take a swing at Ehlers. He could solve the team’s need for a top-line winger without breaking the bank. Given how this year’s free-agent market lacks marquee names, adding Nikolaj Ehlers to the mix could be just what the Leafs are looking for.
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